Update for (155) Scylla - January 8/9, 2000
Update computed by Jan Manek; issued 07 Jan 2000 16:29:00 +0100 (CET)
Jan Manek's update
IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
(155) Scylla / HIP 37124 event on January 8/9, 2000
visible from Belarus, Lithuania, S Sweden, N Denmark, N Scotland
and Newfoundland, NE Nova Scotia, coast of Massachussets, SE Virginia
Summary
In the night January 8/9, 1999 a 9.6 mag star HIP 37124 = PPM 50003 will be
occulted by a small 50 km asteroid (155) Scylla. This update is based on
USNO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid and HIPPARCOS star position.
The updated path shows extremely large ~2" south shift with occultation
time ~3.5 minutes later compared to
Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction.
The path of this occultation runs over southern Russia ~22:38 UT, Belarus
at ~22:40 UT, Lithuania ~22:40.5 UT, southern Sweden ~22:42 UT, north tip
of Denmark ~22:42.5 UT, barely misses south Norway ~22:43 UT, very north
Scotland ~22:44.5 UT and runs into Atlantic Ocean. Then it runs over middle
Newfoundland ~22:50.5 UT, NW Nova Scotia ~22:51.5 UT, very SE Massachussets
(just SE of Boston which is within path errors) at ~22:52 UT and
SE Virginia. Later also North Carolina is in path buth twilight may be
problem there.
The event at one glimpse:
* date and approx. UT time of event: January 8, 2000 @ 22:42 UT (Euro)
22:52 UT (N.Am.)
* magnitude of target star: 9.6
* magnitude drop [mag]: 4.1
* estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.0
* path description: given above
* Goffin's original chart reference: A00_0115(.PS.GZ).
The occultation path:
* approximate ground width [km]: 50
* uncertainty [path widths]: 2
* uncertainty in time [s]: 15
* map: below
* remarks: Path uncertainities are given according to nominal star
position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.
!!!!!!!
Circles along the path are OCCULT exactly calculated centerline points.
!!!!!!!
Data for the target star:
* name: HIP 37124 = PPM 50003 = GSC 2966.1272
* constellation: Lynx
* J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 07h 37m 42.497s; +41o 55' 06.54"
* position source: HIPPARCOS
* estimated accuracy ["]: 0.02" (0.02", 0.02")
* V mag [mag]: 9.56
* B-V [mag]: +0.42
* remarks:
Target star is in SW Lynx, close to Lynx/Auriga border. Target star is
exactly 10 degress north (and 3 minutes west) from 2.0 mag star alpha
Geminorum = Castor. There is 6.8 mag star SAO 41921 about 53' SSE of
target. Region is far from bright stars so have enough time for
locating the target star.
Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE7):
* occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
* field is 2.0x2.0 degrees
* limiting magnitude is 12.5
* labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers
Data for the minor planet:
* general information:
number, name: (155) Scylla
approx. diameter [km]: 50
* orbital information
orbit source: calculation Manek
source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone)
number of used observations: 28 USNO
number of rejected observations: 7 USNO
time covered by the observations: 1998 07 02 - 1999 12 24
rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.14", 0.17"
estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.12"
remarks: Many 1998 position were rejected as the asteroid was faint
and at low declinations so the positions are less accurate than
usually. This is also clearly seen on the RMS values. The latest
positions show smaller scatter so I have estimated better accuracy
for the present time.
Data for the event:
* UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 22:38:55 UT
* approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 13.7
* geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 8.105
* magnitude drop [mag]: 4.1
* estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.0
* apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 32.86
* angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 152, 4%
* remarks:
Calculator(s): Jan Manek
Path coordinates:
Altitude
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. star sun
........ shortened ..........................
+ 38 00 00 + 51 15 55 22 38 15 78 -58
+ 36 00 00 + 51 56 52 22 38 36 78 -58
+ 34 00 00 + 52 35 18 22 38 57 78 -58
+ 32 00 00 + 53 11 17 22 39 17 78 -58
+ 30 00 00 + 53 44 55 22 39 37 78 -58
+ 28 00 00 + 54 16 17 22 39 56 77 -58
+ 26 00 00 + 54 45 28 22 40 15 77 -57
+ 24 00 00 + 55 12 32 22 40 33 76 -57
+ 22 00 00 + 55 37 33 22 40 51 76 -57
+ 20 00 00 + 56 00 36 22 41 09 75 -56
+ 18 00 00 + 56 21 45 22 41 26 74 -56
+ 16 00 00 + 56 41 01 22 41 43 74 -55
+ 14 00 00 + 56 58 30 22 42 00 73 -55
+ 12 00 00 + 57 14 13 22 42 16 72 -54
+ 10 00 00 + 57 28 12 22 42 32 71 -54
+ 8 00 00 + 57 40 32 22 42 48 70 -53
+ 6 00 00 + 57 51 12 22 43 04 69 -53
+ 4 00 00 + 58 00 16 22 43 19 69 -52
+ 2 00 00 + 58 07 44 22 43 34 68 -52
+ 0 00 00 + 58 13 37 22 43 49 67 -51
- 2 00 00 + 58 17 57 22 44 04 66 -50
- 4 00 00 + 58 20 45 22 44 19 65 -50
- 6 00 00 + 58 22 00 22 44 34 64 -49
- 8 00 00 + 58 21 42 22 44 48 63 -48
- 10 00 00 + 58 19 53 22 45 02 62 -48
- 12 00 00 + 58 16 30 22 45 17 61 -47
- 14 00 00 + 58 11 35 22 45 31 60 -46
- 16 00 00 + 58 05 05 22 45 45 59 -46
- 18 00 00 + 57 56 59 22 45 59 59 -45
........ shortened ..........................
- 52 00 00 + 50 53 15 22 50 00 39 -29
- 54 00 00 + 50 07 26 22 50 14 38 -28
- 56 00 00 + 49 18 40 22 50 29 36 -26
- 58 00 00 + 48 26 49 22 50 43 35 -25
- 60 00 00 + 47 31 46 22 50 57 33 -23
- 62 00 00 + 46 33 22 22 51 11 31 -22
- 64 00 00 + 45 31 30 22 51 24 30 -20
- 66 00 00 + 44 26 02 22 51 38 28 -19
- 68 00 00 + 43 16 50 22 51 51 26 -17
- 70 00 00 + 42 03 46 22 52 04 24 -16
- 72 00 00 + 40 46 43 22 52 16 22 -14
- 74 00 00 + 39 25 36 22 52 28 20 -12
- 76 00 00 + 38 00 18 22 52 39 18 -10
- 78 00 00 + 36 30 45 22 52 49 16 -8
........ shortened ..........................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory Private :
Petrin 205 Werichova 950
118 46 Praha 1 152 00 Praha 5 - Barrandov |_|_|
Czech Republic Czech Republic / \
Internet : jmanek@mbox.vol.cz |-O-O-|
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