Update for (49) Pales - January 16/17, 2000

  • Update computed by Jan Manek;   issued 11 Jan 2000 17:03:54 +0100 (CET)
  • Update computed by Martin Federspiel;   issued 4 Jan 2000 23:59:56 +0100 (CET)

  • Martin Federspiel's update

                         IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for 
                    (49) Pales/TYC 1880 01817 event on 2000 Jan 17
                         visible from Central Europe and US
    
    
    Summary 

    In the night of 2000 Jan 16/17 the 150 km large asteroid (49) Pales occults the 9.6 mag star TYC 1880 01817 for observers in central Europe and the US. Romania, Hungary, Austria, southern Germany, the border between Belgium and France, southwesternmost England, eastern Canada, Chicago, ..., and the border California/Baja California are in the path of this rather favourable event.

    The updated path is about 0.1" or 1 path width north of nominal prediction of E. Goffin. Goffin's nominal prediction file has number a00_0110.ps.gz.

    
    The event at one glimpse:
     * date and approx. UT time of event: 2000 Jan 17 @ 1h UT
     * magnitude of target star: 9.6
     * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.2
     * estimated maximum duration [s]: 16
     * rough path description: Central Europe, US
    
    The occultation path:
     * approximate widths [km]: 160
     * more detailed path description: Black Sea, Romania, Hungary, Austria,
       southern Germany, Luxembourg, border Belgium/France, southwestern
       England (Cornwall), southernmost tip of Ireland, eastern Canada,
       Lake Michigan, Chicago, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, New Mexico, Arizona,
       border California/Baja California
     * uncertainty [path widths]: 0.7
     * maps: attached 
     * remarks: path about 0.1" (1 path width) north of Edwin Goffin's nominal
       prediction, no time shift
    
    Data for the target star:
     * name: TYC 1880 01817
     * constellation: Gemini
     * J2000 position [h,m,s; °,',"]: RA 6 35 54.054 DE +23 18 35.08
     * position source: TRC (and TYC currently not available to me)
     * estimated accuracy ["]: ? 
     * V mag [mag]: 9.63
     * remarks: accuracy assumed to be 0.1"
    
    Data for the minor planet:
     * general information:
         mumber, name: (49) Pales
         approx. diameter [km]: 154
     * orbital information
         orbit source: calculation Federspiel
         source of used astrometry: CAMC, Bordeaux, USNO, TMO
         number of used observations: 125
         number of rejected observations: several
         time covered by the observations: 1985 - 1999 Dec 16
         rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.14",0.15"
         estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.07"
         remarks:
    
    Data for the event:
     * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2000 Jan 17 @ 1h 4m 42s
     * least geocentric distance ["]: 2.43"
     * uncertainty in time [s]: 9
     * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 11.6
     * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 5.10
     * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.2
     * estimated maximum duration [s]: 16
     * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 27.68"/h
     * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [°,%]: 40°,77%+
     * remarks:
    
    Calculator(s): Martin Federspiel
    
    

    Updated path location for (49) Pales on January 16/17, 2000 - Euro

    Updated path location for (49) Pales on January 16/17, 2000 - N.Am. Path coordinates: Lat. Long. hh:mm:ss UT StarAlt° StarAzi° SunAlt° SunAzi° 32.68 63.33 0:55: 9. ! 9.4 291.8 -23.6 100.5 36.04 55.14 0:55:31. ! 16.7 287.0 -30.7 94.7 38.28 49.28 0:55:54. ! 21.7 283.2 -35.4 89.8 40.06 44.32 0:56:16. ! 25.8 279.7 -39.1 85.3 41.57 39.85 0:56:38. ! 29.3 276.3 -42.2 80.8 42.87 35.70 0:56:60. ! 32.4 272.9 -44.9 76.3 44.03 31.76 0:57:22. ! 35.2 269.6 -47.2 71.7 45.07 27.97 0:57:44. ! 37.8 266.1 -49.3 67.0 46.00 24.31 0:58: 6. ! 40.2 262.6 -51.2 62.1 46.84 20.73 0:58:28. ! 42.4 259.0 -52.8 57.1 47.60 17.22 0:58:50. ! 44.5 255.3 -54.3 51.9 48.28 13.76 0:59:12. ! 46.5 251.5 -55.5 46.6 48.90 10.35 0:59:34. ! 48.3 247.6 -56.6 41.1 49.45 6.96 0:59:56. ! 50.0 243.5 -57.5 35.5 49.94 3.61 1: 0:19. ! 51.7 239.2 -58.2 29.8 50.37 .28 1: 0:41. ! 53.2 234.8 -58.8 23.9 50.75 -3.03 1: 1: 3. ! 54.6 230.2 -59.2 18.0 51.07 -6.33 1: 1:25. ! 55.8 225.4 -59.4 12.1 51.34 -9.61 1: 1:47. ! 57.0 220.4 -59.5 6.2 51.56 -12.88 1: 2: 9. ! 58.0 215.3 -59.3 .4 51.72 -16.13 1: 2:31. ! 59.0 210.0 -59.1 354.6 51.84 -19.37 1: 2:53. ! 59.7 204.5 -58.7 349.0 51.91 -22.60 1: 3:15. ! 60.4 198.8 -58.2 343.5 51.93 -25.82 1: 3:37. ! 60.9 193.1 -57.5 338.1 51.90 -29.02 1: 3:59. ! 61.3 187.2 -56.8 333.0 51.83 -32.21 1: 4:22. ! 61.5 181.3 -55.9 328.0 51.71 -35.38 1: 4:44. ! 61.6 175.4 -54.9 323.2 51.54 -38.54 1: 5: 6. ! 61.5 169.5 -53.8 318.6 51.33 -41.68 1: 5:28. ! 61.2 163.6 -52.7 314.1 51.07 -44.81 1: 5:50. ! 60.8 157.8 -51.4 309.9 50.77 -47.92 1: 6:12. ! 60.3 152.2 -50.1 305.8 50.43 -51.02 1: 6:34. ! 59.6 146.7 -48.7 301.9 50.03 -54.11 1: 6:56. ! 58.8 141.4 -47.2 298.2 49.60 -57.18 1: 7:18. ! 57.9 136.3 -45.7 294.6 49.12 -60.25 1: 7:40. ! 56.8 131.5 -44.1 291.2 48.59 -63.30 1: 8: 2. ! 55.7 126.8 -42.5 287.8 48.02 -66.35 1: 8:24. ! 54.4 122.3 -40.7 284.7 47.40 -69.41 1: 8:47. ! 52.9 118.0 -38.9 281.6 46.73 -72.46 1: 9: 9. ! 51.4 113.9 -37.1 278.6 46.01 -75.52 1: 9:31. ! 49.8 110.0 -35.1 275.8 45.24 -78.60 1: 9:53. ! 48.1 106.3 -33.1 273.0 44.41 -81.71 1:10:15. ! 46.2 102.8 -31.0 270.3 43.52 -84.85 1:10:37. ! 44.2 99.3 -28.8 267.7 42.57 -88.04 1:10:59. ! 42.1 96.0 -26.5 265.2 41.54 -91.29 1:11:21. ! 39.8 92.9 -24.0 262.7 40.43 -94.63 1:11:43. ! 37.4 89.8 -21.4 260.3 39.23 -98.09 1:12: 5. ! 34.8 86.8 -18.7 257.8 37.91 -101.71 1:12:27. ! 31.9 83.9 -15.7 255.4 36.45 -105.55 1:12:50. ! 28.8 81.0 -12.4 253.0 34.80 -109.72 1:13:12. ! 25.2 78.1 -8.7 250.6 32.88 -114.41 1:13:34. ! 21.1 75.2 -4.5 247.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Martin Federspiel ******** E-mail: martin@astro.unibas.ch Astronomisches Institut ******** oder: federspi@astro.unibas.ch der Universitaet Basel **** oder: federspielm@ubaclu.unibas.ch Venusstr. 7 Telefon: (CH)-61/2055413 CH-4102 Binningen (Schweiz) Fax: (CH)-61/2055455 -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Jan Manek's update

                         IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
           (49) Pales / TYC 1880 01817 1 event on January 16/17, 2000
                        visible from Europe, Canada and USA
    
    
    Summary 

    In the night January 16/17, 1999 a 9.6 mag star TYC 1880 01817 1 will be occulted by a 154 km asteroid (49) Pales. This update is based on TMO and USNO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid and TRC1.0 star position.

    The updated path shows small ~1 path width north shift with occultation time few seconds earlier compared to Goffin's nominal prediction.

    The path of this occultation runs over Romania ~00:58 UT, Hungary and SW Slovakia at ~00:58.5 UT, NE Austria and SW Czech Repuplic at ~00:59 UT, southern Germany ~00:59.5 UT, Belgium and N France ~01:00 UT, south England at ~01:01 UT and S Ireland ~01:02 UT. After crossing Atlantic ocean path runs over NW Newfoundland ~01:07 UT, very SE Quebec provincia with Quebec itself also ~01:09 UT and runs to SW to USA. It runs oven Lake Huron, Michigan ~01:10.5 UT, Lake Michigan, south Wisconsin and north Illinois at ~01:11 UT, SE Iowa ~01:11.5 UT, NW tip of Missouri, SE tip of Nebraska and NW Kansas ~01:12 UT, SE Colorado ~01:12.5 UT, NW New Mexico ~01:13 UT and in twilight also middle Arizona.

    I would count this as a favourable event, but as TYCHO gives for the star 'X' flag (=dubious astrometric reference star), the error of star position may be larger than indicated (and therefore also the update accuracy).

    The target star is the NE on in a small triangle of stars (11.0, 10.4 and 9.6 mags) so these can be used as nice references. Good luck !

    
    The event at one glimpse:
     * date and approx. UT time of event: January 17, 2000 @ 00:59 UT (Euro)
                                                             01:11 UT (N.Am.)
     * magnitude of target star: 9.6
     * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.2
     * estimated maximum duration [s]: 16.0
     * path description: given above
     * Goffin's original chart reference: A00_0110.PS.GZ
    
    The occultation path:
     * approximate ground width [km]: 180
     * uncertainty [path widths]: 0.9
     * uncertainty in time [s]: 15
     * map: below
     * remarks: Path uncertainities are given according to nominal star
        position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.
        !!!!!!!
        Circles along the path are OCCULT exactly calculated centerline points.
        !!!!!!!
    
    Data for the target star:
     * name: TYC 1880 01817 1
     * constellation: Gemini
     * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 06h 35m 54.054s; +23o 18' 35.08"
     * position source: TRC1.0
     * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.05" (0.04", 0.03")
     * V mag [mag]: 9.60
     * B-V [mag]: +0.23
     * remarks: TYCHO gives quality flag 4(=high) with '(unresolved) duplicity'
         flag and also 'dubious astrometric reference star' flag. Although the
         star position accuracy seems to be good, true position error may be 
         larger than indicated. Star is not in ACT.
    
         Target star is in middle Gemini, approximately midway between 3.0 mag 
         star epsilon Geminorum and 2.9 mag variable mui Geminorum. Target star 
         is 17' NW of 7.0 mag star SAO 78545. Target star is the NE star and
         also the brightest one in a small triangle. 
    
    Close finding chart:
     * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
     * field is 1.4x1.4 degrees
     * limiting magnitude is 12.5
     * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers
    
    

    Close finding chart Data for the minor planet: * general information: number, name: (49) Pales approx. diameter [km]: 154 * orbital information orbit source: calculation Manek source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen) number of used observations: 52 USNO, 27 TMO number of rejected observations: 4 USNO, 1 TMO time covered by the observations: 1998 06 26 - 1999 12 31 rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.07", 0.07" estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.07" remarks: Data for the event: * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 01:04:38 UT * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 11.6 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 5.095 * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.2 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 16.0 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 27.68 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 40, 76% * remarks: Calculator(s): Jan Manek

    Updated path location for (49) Pales on January 16/17, 2000 - Euro

    Updated path location for (49) Pales on January 16/17, 2000 - N.Am. Path coordinates: Altitude E. Longitude Latitude U.T. star sun ........ shortened .......................... + 35 00 00 + 43 15 59 0 57 00 33 -45 + 33 00 00 + 43 51 30 0 57 11 34 -46 + 31 00 00 + 44 25 44 0 57 23 36 -48 + 29 00 00 + 44 58 43 0 57 34 37 -49 + 27 00 00 + 45 30 25 0 57 46 38 -50 + 25 00 00 + 46 00 50 0 57 58 40 -51 + 23 00 00 + 46 30 00 0 58 10 41 -52 + 21 00 00 + 46 57 53 0 58 23 42 -53 + 19 00 00 + 47 24 30 0 58 35 43 -53 + 17 00 00 + 47 49 52 0 58 48 45 -54 + 15 00 00 + 48 13 59 0 59 01 46 -55 + 13 00 00 + 48 36 51 0 59 14 47 -56 + 11 00 00 + 48 58 29 0 59 27 48 -56 + 9 00 00 + 49 18 54 0 59 40 49 -57 + 7 00 00 + 49 38 05 0 59 53 50 -57 + 5 00 00 + 49 56 04 1 00 06 51 -58 + 3 00 00 + 50 12 52 1 00 19 52 -58 + 1 00 00 + 50 28 28 1 00 32 53 -59 - 1 00 00 + 50 42 54 1 00 46 54 -59 - 3 00 00 + 50 56 09 1 00 59 54 -59 - 5 00 00 + 51 08 15 1 01 12 55 -59 - 7 00 00 + 51 19 12 1 01 26 56 -59 - 9 00 00 + 51 29 00 1 01 39 57 -59 - 11 00 00 + 51 37 40 1 01 53 57 -59 - 13 00 00 + 51 45 13 1 02 06 58 -59 ........ shortened .......................... - 47 00 00 + 51 03 17 1 06 01 60 -50 - 49 00 00 + 50 50 43 1 06 15 60 -49 - 51 00 00 + 50 37 00 1 06 30 59 -49 - 53 00 00 + 50 22 07 1 06 44 59 -48 - 55 00 00 + 50 06 04 1 06 58 58 -47 - 57 00 00 + 49 48 49 1 07 13 58 -46 - 59 00 00 + 49 30 24 1 07 27 57 -45 - 61 00 00 + 49 10 46 1 07 41 56 -44 - 63 00 00 + 48 49 56 1 07 56 56 -43 - 65 00 00 + 48 27 52 1 08 10 55 -41 - 67 00 00 + 48 04 36 1 08 25 54 -40 - 69 00 00 + 47 40 05 1 08 39 53 -39 - 71 00 00 + 47 14 20 1 08 54 52 -38 - 73 00 00 + 46 47 20 1 09 08 51 -37 - 75 00 00 + 46 19 06 1 09 23 50 -35 - 77 00 00 + 45 49 36 1 09 37 49 -34 - 79 00 00 + 45 18 51 1 09 51 48 -33 - 81 00 00 + 44 46 51 1 10 05 47 -31 - 83 00 00 + 44 13 36 1 10 20 45 -30 - 85 00 00 + 43 39 06 1 10 34 44 -29 - 87 00 00 + 43 03 22 1 10 48 43 -27 - 89 00 00 + 42 26 25 1 11 01 41 -26 - 91 00 00 + 41 48 15 1 11 15 40 -24 - 93 00 00 + 41 08 53 1 11 28 39 -23 - 95 00 00 + 40 28 20 1 11 41 37 -21 - 97 00 00 + 39 46 39 1 11 54 36 -20 - 99 00 00 + 39 03 50 1 12 07 34 -18 -101 00 00 + 38 19 56 1 12 19 32 -16 -103 00 00 + 37 34 59 1 12 31 31 -15 -105 00 00 + 36 49 01 1 12 42 29 -13 -107 00 00 + 36 02 05 1 12 53 27 -11 -109 00 00 + 35 14 14 1 13 04 26 -9 -111 00 00 + 34 25 32 1 13 14 24 -8 ........ shortened .......................... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan Manek Stefanik Observatory Private : Petrin 205 Werichova 950 118 46 Praha 1 152 00 Praha 5 - Barrandov |_|_| Czech Republic Czech Republic / \ Internet : jmanek@mbox.vol.cz |-O-O-| --------------------------------------------------------------------U---U---

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