Update for (1605) Milankovitch - June 20/21, 2000

Jan Manek's update

                    IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
     (1605) Milankovitch / TYC 5173-01472-1 event on June 20/21, 2000
               visible from middle-south Europe east to west


Summary 

In the night of June 22/21, 2000 a 9.2 mag star TYC 5173-01472-1 = SAO 144162 will be occulted by a tiny 39 km asteroid (16050 Milankovitch. This update is based on USNO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid and Tycho-2 star position.

The updated path shows ~0.3" south shift with time ~1.5 minutes later compared to Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction (which is well within update errors).

The path of this occultation runs over southern Russia ~23:47 UT, Crymean peninsula ~23:48 UT, Romania ~23:49.5 UT, north of former Yugoslavia ~23:50.5 UT, northern Italy ~23:52 UT, southern France ~23:53 UT. Expected path errors are rather large and within these are also Ukraine, Moldavia, Bulgaria, Hingary, Austria, middle Italy, Switzerland and most of France. Please consult the chart for details.

The event at one glimpse:
 * date and approx. UT time of event: June 20, 2000 @ 23:51 UT
 * magnitude of target star: 9.2
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 6.0
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.5
 * path description: given above
 * Goffin's original chart reference: A00_0626

The occultation path:
 * approximate ground width [km]: 65
 * uncertainty [path widths]: 6.5
 * uncertainty in time [s]: 30
 * map: below
 * remarks: Path uncertainities are given according to nominal star
    position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.
    !!!!!!!
    Circles along path indicates the centerline for this event.
    They are more accurate than the path limit lines.
    !!!!!!!

Data for the target star:
 * name: PPM 203755 = SAO 144162 = TYC 5173-01472-1
 * constellation: Aquila
 * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 20h 12m 04.021s; -06o 57' 16.72"
 * position source: Tycho-2
 * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.03 (0.02", 0.02")
 * V mag [mag]: 9.21
 * B-V [mag]: +1.21
 * remarks: 
     Target star is in SE Aquila, about 6 degrees almost exactly south of 
     3.3 mag star theta Aquilae. The field is in Milky Way, so starhopping 
     should be easy. There is nice 9.3 mag reference star SAO 144155 only
     6.1' west of target.

Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE7):
 * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
 * field is 2.5x2.5 degrees
 * limiting magnitude is 12.5
 * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers





Data for the minor planet:
 * general information:
     number, name: (1605) Milankovitch
     approx. diameter [km]: 39
 * orbital information
     orbit source: calculation Manek
     source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone)
     number of used observations: 27 USNO
     number of rejected observations: 4 USNO
     time covered by the observations: 1999 02 18 - 2000 06 14
     rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.08", 0.08"
     estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.12"
     remarks: Large scatter in recent positions. Faint object.

Data for the event:
 * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 23:48.5  UT
 * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 15.2
 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 3.741
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 6.0
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.5
 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 18.50
 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 17, 87%
 * remarks: 

Calculator(s): Jan Manek





Path coordinates:
                                       Altitude
  E. Longitude    Latitude     U.T.    star  sun
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o
   ........ shortened ..........................
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o
     54  0  0    46 51 44   23 45 41    34    -7
     52  0  0    46 41 49   23 45 57    35    -8
     50  0  0    46 32 22   23 46 13    35    -9
     48  0  0    46 23 22   23 46 29    36   -10
     46  0  0    46 14 52   23 46 45    36   -11
     44  0  0    46  6 51   23 47  2    37   -12
     42  0  0    45 59 20   23 47 19    37   -12
     40  0  0    45 52 19   23 47 36    37   -13
     38  0  0    45 45 51   23 47 53    37   -14
     36  0  0    45 39 54   23 48 10    37   -15
     34  0  0    45 34 29   23 48 27    38   -16
     32  0  0    45 29 37   23 48 45    38   -16
     30  0  0    45 25 19   23 49  2    37   -17
     28  0  0    45 21 34   23 49 19    37   -18
     26  0  0    45 18 23   23 49 36    37   -18
     24  0  0    45 15 47   23 49 53    37   -19
     22  0  0    45 13 45   23 50 10    36   -19
     20  0  0    45 12 18   23 50 27    36   -20
     18  0  0    45 11 25   23 50 43    36   -20
     16  0  0    45 11  8   23 50 60    35   -20
     14  0  0    45 11 25   23 51 16    34   -21
     12  0  0    45 12 18   23 51 32    34   -21
     10  0  0    45 13 46   23 51 48    33   -21
      8  0  0    45 15 49   23 52  3    32   -21
      6  0  0    45 18 27   23 52 18    32   -21
      4  0  0    45 21 39   23 52 33    31   -21
      2  0  0    45 25 26   23 52 47    30   -21
      0  0  0    45 29 47   23 53  1    29   -21
   -  2  0  0    45 34 43   23 53 15    28   -21
   -  4  0  0    45 40 12   23 53 28    27   -21
   -  6  0  0    45 46 14   23 53 41    26   -21
   -  8  0  0    45 52 49   23 53 53    25   -20
   - 10  0  0    45 59 57   23 54  4    24   -20
   - 12  0  0    46  7 36   23 54 16    23   -19
   - 14  0  0    46 15 47   23 54 26    21   -19
   - 16  0  0    46 24 28   23 54 36    20   -18
   - 18  0  0    46 33 39   23 54 46    19   -18
   - 20  0  0    46 43 19   23 54 55    18   -17
   - 22  0  0    46 53 28   23 55  3    17   -17
   - 24  0  0    47  4  4   23 55 11    15   -16
   - 26  0  0    47 15  7   23 55 18    14   -15
   - 28  0  0    47 26 36   23 55 24    13   -14
   - 30  0  0    47 38 30   23 55 30    11   -14
   - 32  0  0    47 50 48   23 55 36    10   -13
   - 34  0  0    48  3 29   23 55 40     9   -12
   - 36  0  0    48 16 31   23 55 44     7   -11
   - 38  0  0    48 29 54   23 55 47     6   -10
   ........ shortened ..........................

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory                Private :
Petrin 205                          Werichova 950
118 46  Praha 1                     152 00  Praha 5 - Barrandov     |_|_|
Czech Republic                      Czech Republic                  /   \
Internet : jmanek@mbox.vol.cz                                      |-O-O-|
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