Update for (419) Aurelia - December 7, 2001
Update computed by Jan Manek; issued 01 Dec 2001 01:25:00 +0100 (CET)
Jan Manek's update
IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
(419) Aurelia / TYC 1223-01599-1 on December 7, 2001
visible from Russia, S Latvia, Lithuania, N Poland, N Germany,
Netherlands, Belgium, SE England and NW France.
Summary
In the evening of December 7, 2001 a 10.5 mag star TYC 1223-01599-1 will be
occulted by a 133 km asteroid (419) Aurelia. This update is based on
USNO/Flagstaff and TMO astrometry for the asteroid and combined UCAC and
Tycho-2 star position.
The updated path shows ~2 path width north shift with time ~0.2 minutes later
compared to
Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction. This path update is ~1/2 path
width north of the path from Steve Preston's update with no time difference.
Updated path runs over Russia just north of Moscow ~21:48.5 UT,
South Latvia ~21:49.5 UT, Lithuania ~21:49.7 UT, North Poland ~21:50.2 UT,
North and NE Germany just north of Berlin around 21:50.8 UT and slighly
later close Hamburg, over Netherlands and Belgium around 21:51.8 UT,
SE England and NW France ~21:52.5 UT.
please check the path chart for details.
Large brightness drop with star high in the sky and long event duration
makes this a very promising event - please give a try. Plese also try
to contact observers in the path (uncertainty) areas and inform them
about this promising event.
I wish all observers clear skies !!!
The event at one glimpse:
* date and approx. UT time of event: December 7, 2001 @ 21:51 UT
* magnitude of target star: 10.5
* magnitude drop [mag]: 2.7
* estimated maximum duration [s]: 14.0
* path description: given above
* Goffin's original chart reference: A01_1226
The occultation path:
* approximate ground width [km]: 150
* uncertainty [path widths]: 1.0
* uncertainty in time [s]: 15
* map: below
* remarks: Path uncertainities are given according to nominal star
position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.
Data for the target star:
* name: TYC 1223-01599-1
* constellation: Aries
* J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 02h 41m 05.728s; +15o 19' 17.94"
* position source: weighted mean from UCAC and Tycho-2
* estimated accuracy ["]: 0.03" (0.02", 0.02")
* V mag [mag]: 10.48
* B-V [mag]: +0.32
* remarks:
Recent UCAC position was provided by Marion and Norbert Zacharias.
Target star is in south Aries, about 5 degrees N of 4.3 mag star mui
Ceti = SAO 110723. Target star is 50' west of 5.8 mag star omicron Ariets
= SAO 118501.
Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE7):
* occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
* field is 3.0x3.0 degrees
* limiting magnitude is 12.5
* labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers
Data for the minor planet:
* general information:
number, name: (419) Aurelia
approx. diameter [km]: 133
* orbital information
orbit source: calculation Manek
source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen)
number of used observations: 85 USNO, 8 TMO
number of rejected observations: 5 USNO, 1 TMO
time covered by the observations: 1997 11 21 - 2001 11 24
rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.08", 0.07"
estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.07", 0.07"
remarks:
Data for the event:
* UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 21:55.4 UT
* approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 13.1
* geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 4.123
* magnitude drop [mag]: 2.7
* estimated maximum duration [s]: 14.0
* apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 22.13
* angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 124, 49%
* remarks:
Calculator(s): Jan Manek
Path coordinates:
Latitude Latitude
Centre Altitude Path Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. star sun Limit 1 Limit 2
........................... shortened .............................
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o ' " o ' "
92 0 0 54 45 31 21 45 56 10 -35 55 29 17 54 2 6
91 0 0 54 56 58 21 45 58 10 -36 55 40 36 54 13 39
90 0 0 55 8 2 21 45 59 11 -36 55 51 35 54 24 50
89 0 0 55 18 45 21 46 1 11 -37 56 2 11 54 35 39
88 0 0 55 29 7 21 46 2 12 -37 56 12 27 54 46 7
87 0 0 55 39 8 21 46 4 13 -38 56 22 21 54 56 14
86 0 0 55 48 47 21 46 6 13 -38 56 31 55 55 5 59
85 0 0 55 58 6 21 46 8 14 -39 56 41 8 55 15 24
84 0 0 56 7 5 21 46 9 14 -39 56 50 1 55 24 28
83 0 0 56 15 42 21 46 11 15 -40 56 58 33 55 33 11
82 0 0 56 24 0 21 46 13 15 -40 57 6 45 55 41 34
81 0 0 56 31 58 21 46 16 16 -41 57 14 38 55 49 36
80 0 0 56 39 36 21 46 18 17 -41 57 22 11 55 57 19
79 0 0 56 46 54 21 46 20 17 -41 57 29 24 56 4 42
78 0 0 56 53 53 21 46 22 18 -42 57 36 19 56 11 45
77 0 0 57 0 32 21 46 24 18 -42 57 42 54 56 18 28
76 0 0 57 6 52 21 46 27 19 -43 57 49 10 56 24 52
75 0 0 57 12 53 21 46 29 19 -43 57 55 7 56 30 57
74 0 0 57 18 35 21 46 32 20 -44 58 0 45 56 36 43
73 0 0 57 23 58 21 46 34 20 -44 58 6 5 56 42 10
72 0 0 57 29 3 21 46 37 21 -44 58 11 6 56 47 18
71 0 0 57 33 49 21 46 39 21 -45 58 15 49 56 52 7
70 0 0 57 38 17 21 46 42 22 -45 58 20 14 56 56 37
69 0 0 57 42 26 21 46 45 22 -46 58 24 21 57 0 49
68 0 0 57 46 17 21 46 48 23 -46 58 28 9 57 4 43
67 0 0 57 49 50 21 46 50 23 -46 58 31 40 57 8 18
66 0 0 57 53 5 21 46 53 24 -47 58 34 53 57 11 35
65 0 0 57 56 3 21 46 56 24 -47 58 37 48 57 14 34
64 0 0 57 58 42 21 46 59 25 -48 58 40 26 57 17 15
63 0 0 58 1 3 21 47 2 25 -48 58 42 46 57 19 38
62 0 0 58 3 7 21 47 5 26 -48 58 44 48 57 21 43
61 0 0 58 4 53 21 47 9 26 -49 58 46 33 57 23 30
60 0 0 58 6 21 21 47 12 27 -49 58 48 1 57 24 59
59 0 0 58 7 32 21 47 15 27 -49 58 49 11 57 26 11
58 0 0 58 8 26 21 47 18 28 -50 58 50 4 57 27 4
57 0 0 58 9 1 21 47 22 28 -50 58 50 40 57 27 40
56 0 0 58 9 20 21 47 25 29 -50 58 50 58 57 27 59
55 0 0 58 9 21 21 47 28 29 -51 58 50 59 57 27 59
54 0 0 58 9 4 21 47 32 30 -51 58 50 43 57 27 42
53 0 0 58 8 30 21 47 36 30 -51 58 50 10 57 27 8
52 0 0 58 7 39 21 47 39 31 -51 58 49 19 57 26 15
51 0 0 58 6 30 21 47 43 31 -52 58 48 11 57 25 5
50 0 0 58 5 3 21 47 46 32 -52 58 46 46 57 23 38
49 0 0 58 3 19 21 47 50 32 -52 58 45 4 57 21 52
48 0 0 58 1 18 21 47 54 33 -53 58 43 4 57 19 49
47 0 0 57 58 59 21 47 58 33 -53 58 40 47 57 17 28
46 0 0 57 56 22 21 48 2 34 -53 58 38 12 57 14 50
45 0 0 57 53 28 21 48 6 34 -53 58 35 21 57 11 53
44 0 0 57 50 16 21 48 10 35 -54 58 32 11 57 8 39
43 0 0 57 46 47 21 48 14 35 -54 58 28 44 57 5 7
42 0 0 57 42 59 21 48 18 36 -54 58 24 60 57 1 17
41 0 0 57 38 54 21 48 22 36 -54 58 20 58 56 57 8
40 0 0 57 34 31 21 48 27 37 -54 58 16 38 56 52 42
39 0 0 57 29 50 21 48 31 37 -55 58 12 0 56 47 57
38 0 0 57 24 50 21 48 36 38 -55 58 7 4 56 42 54
37 0 0 57 19 33 21 48 40 38 -55 58 1 51 56 37 33
36 0 0 57 13 57 21 48 45 39 -55 57 56 19 56 31 53
35 0 0 57 8 3 21 48 49 39 -55 57 50 29 56 25 55
34 0 0 57 1 50 21 48 54 40 -56 57 44 21 56 19 38
33 0 0 56 55 19 21 48 59 40 -56 57 37 54 56 13 2
32 0 0 56 48 29 21 49 3 41 -56 57 31 9 56 6 8
31 0 0 56 41 20 21 49 8 41 -56 57 24 5 55 58 54
30 0 0 56 33 53 21 49 13 41 -56 57 16 43 55 51 22
29 0 0 56 26 6 21 49 18 42 -56 57 9 1 55 43 30
28 0 0 56 17 60 21 49 23 42 -56 57 1 0 55 35 18
27 0 0 56 9 34 21 49 28 43 -56 56 52 41 55 26 47
26 0 0 56 0 50 21 49 34 43 -56 56 44 1 55 17 57
25 0 0 55 51 45 21 49 39 44 -57 56 35 3 55 8 47
24 0 0 55 42 21 21 49 44 44 -57 56 25 45 54 59 17
23 0 0 55 32 37 21 49 50 45 -57 56 16 7 54 49 27
22 0 0 55 22 33 21 49 56 45 -57 56 6 9 54 39 16
21 0 0 55 12 8 21 50 1 46 -57 55 55 51 54 28 46
20 0 0 55 1 23 21 50 7 46 -57 55 45 13 54 17 55
19 0 0 54 50 18 21 50 13 47 -57 55 34 14 54 6 43
18 0 0 54 38 52 21 50 19 47 -57 55 22 55 53 55 10
17 0 0 54 27 6 21 50 25 48 -57 55 11 15 53 43 17
16 0 0 54 14 58 21 50 31 48 -57 54 59 14 53 31 3
15 0 0 54 2 29 21 50 37 49 -57 54 46 53 53 18 27
14 0 0 53 49 39 21 50 43 49 -57 54 34 10 53 5 30
13 0 0 53 36 28 21 50 49 49 -56 54 21 6 52 52 11
12 0 0 53 22 55 21 50 56 50 -56 54 7 40 52 38 31
11 0 0 53 9 0 21 51 2 50 -56 53 53 53 52 24 30
10 0 0 52 54 44 21 51 9 51 -56 53 39 44 52 10 6
9 0 0 52 40 5 21 51 16 51 -56 53 25 13 51 55 20
8 0 0 52 25 5 21 51 22 52 -56 53 10 20 51 40 12
7 0 0 52 9 42 21 51 29 52 -56 52 55 4 51 24 42
6 0 0 51 53 57 21 51 36 53 -55 52 39 27 51 8 50
5 0 0 51 37 49 21 51 43 53 -55 52 23 27 50 52 35
4 0 0 51 21 19 21 51 51 53 -55 52 7 4 50 35 57
3 0 0 51 4 26 21 51 58 54 -55 51 50 19 50 18 57
2 0 0 50 47 11 21 52 5 54 -54 51 33 11 50 1 34
1 0 0 50 29 32 21 52 13 55 -54 51 15 40 49 43 49
0 0 0 50 11 31 21 52 21 55 -54 50 57 46 49 25 40
- 1 0 0 49 53 7 21 52 28 55 -54 50 39 30 49 7 8
- 2 0 0 49 34 20 21 52 36 56 -53 50 20 50 48 48 14
- 3 0 0 49 15 9 21 52 44 56 -53 50 1 47 48 28 57
- 4 0 0 48 55 36 21 52 52 56 -53 49 42 21 48 9 16
- 5 0 0 48 35 39 21 53 0 57 -52 49 22 31 47 49 13
- 6 0 0 48 15 20 21 53 8 57 -52 49 2 19 47 28 46
- 7 0 0 47 54 37 21 53 17 57 -51 48 41 43 47 7 57
- 8 0 0 47 33 32 21 53 25 58 -51 48 20 44 46 46 45
- 9 0 0 47 12 3 21 53 34 58 -51 47 59 23 46 25 10
- 10 0 0 46 50 12 21 53 42 58 -50 47 37 38 46 3 12
- 11 0 0 46 27 58 21 53 51 58 -50 47 15 30 45 40 52
- 12 0 0 46 5 21 21 54 0 59 -49 46 52 59 45 18 9
........................... shortened .............................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory Private :
Petrin 205 Werichova 950
118 46 Praha 1 152 00 Praha 5 - Barrandov |_|_|
Czech Republic Czech Republic / \
Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz |-O-O-|
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