Update for (712) Boliviana - January 17/18, 2002 - South Africa and South America

Jan Manek's update

                       IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
             (712) Boliviana / TYC 0127-00157-1 on January 17/18, 2002
                visible from N South Africa, south Namibia, south Brazil,
                               S Paraguay and north Argentina


Summary 

In the night of January 17/18, 2002 a 11.0 mag star TYC 0127-00157-1 will be occulted by a 132 km asteroid (712) Boliviana. This update is based on USNO/Flagstaff and TMO astrometry for the asteroid and combined UCAC/Tycho-2 star position.

The updated path shows ~0.7 path width south with time ~1.0 minutes later compared to Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction.

Updated path runs over south Africa, just north of Durban ~23:16.6 UT, south limit runs along/between Bloemfontein and Kimberley ~23:17.7 UT and south Namibia ~23:20 UT. In south America path runs over very south Brazil ~23:41 UT, south Paraguay ~23:42 UT and north Argentina in twilight ~23:44 UT. Please check the path chart for details.

The event at one glimpse:
 * date and approx. UT time of event: January 17, 2002 @ 23:18 UT (S.Africa)
                                                         23:41 UT (S.America)
 * magnitude of target star: 11.0
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.1
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 28.6
 * path description: given above
 * Goffin's original chart reference: A02_0146

The occultation path:
 * approximate ground width [km]: 160
 * uncertainty [path widths]: 0.6
 * uncertainty in time [s]: 20
 * map: below
 * remarks: Path uncertainities are given according to nominal star
    position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.

Data for the target star:
 * name: TYC 0127-00157-1
 * constellation: Orion
 * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 05h 40m 38.5072s; +07o 20' 54.883"
 * position source: combined UCAC and Tycho-2
 * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.02" (0.015", 0.010")
 * V mag [mag]: 11.04
 * B-V [mag]: +0.38
 * remarks:
     Target star is in north Orion, about midway between 0 mag star Betelgeuse =
     alpha Orionis = SAO 113271 and 1.7 mag star Bellatrix = gamma Orionis =
     = SAO 112740. Just 41' west of target is 5.9 mag SAO 112979.

Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE7):
 * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
 * field is 3.0x3.0 degrees
 * limiting magnitude is 13.0
 * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers





Data for the minor planet:
 * general information:
     number, name: (712) Boliviana
     approx. diameter [km]: 132
 * orbital information
     orbit source: calculation Manek
     source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone),
                                TMO (Bill Owen)
     number of used observations: 87 USNO, 12 TMO
     number of rejected observations: 7 USNO, 5 TMO
     time covered by the observations: 1998 02 02 - 2002 01 03
     rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.07", 0.07"
     estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.07", 0.07"
     remarks:

Data for the event:
 * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 23:32.5 UT
 * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 11.0
 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 6.622
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.1
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 28.6
 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 17.24
 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 96, 17%
 * remarks:

Calculator(s): Jan Manek








Path coordinates:
                                                   Latitude   Latitude
                  Centre               Altitude       Path Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.   star   sun   Limit 1    Limit 2
   ........................... shortened .............................
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "
     35  0  0   -29 12 46   23 15 45    25   -36  -28 29 54  -29 55 58
     34  0  0   -29  6  7   23 15 55    26   -37  -28 23 16  -29 49 19
     33  0  0   -28 59 32   23 16  6    27   -37  -28 16 42  -29 42 44
     32  0  0   -28 53  2   23 16 17    27   -37  -28 10 13  -29 36 13
     31  0  0   -28 46 37   23 16 28    28   -38  -28  3 48  -29 29 46
     30  0  0   -28 40 15   23 16 40    29   -38  -27 57 27  -29 23 24
     29  0  0   -28 33 59   23 16 52    30   -39  -27 51 11  -29 17  7
     28  0  0   -28 27 47   23 17  4    31   -39  -27 44 60  -29 10 54
     27  0  0   -28 21 39   23 17 16    31   -39  -27 38 53  -29  4 46
     26  0  0   -28 15 37   23 17 29    32   -40  -27 32 52  -28 58 43
     25  0  0   -28  9 39   23 17 42    33   -40  -27 26 55  -28 52 45
     24  0  0   -28  3 47   23 17 55    34   -40  -27 21  3  -28 46 51
     23  0  0   -27 57 60   23 18  8    34   -41  -27 15 17  -28 41  3
     22  0  0   -27 52 18   23 18 22    35   -41  -27  9 36  -28 35 21
     21  0  0   -27 46 41   23 18 36    36   -41  -27  3 60  -28 29 43
     20  0  0   -27 41 10   23 18 50    37   -41  -26 58 29  -28 24 11
     19  0  0   -27 35 44   23 19  5    37   -42  -26 53  4  -28 18 44
     18  0  0   -27 30 23   23 19 19    38   -42  -26 47 44  -28 13 23
     17  0  0   -27 25  9   23 19 34    39   -42  -26 42 30  -28  8  8
     16  0  0   -27 19 59   23 19 49    40   -42  -26 37 22  -28  2 58
     15  0  0   -27 14 56   23 20  5    40   -42  -26 32 19  -27 57 54
     14  0  0   -27  9 58   23 20 20    41   -42  -26 27 22  -27 52 55
     13  0  0   -27  5  7   23 20 36    42   -42  -26 22 31  -27 48  3
   ........................... shortened .............................
   - 43  0  0   -25 31 36   23 38 17    54   -22  -24 49 14  -26 14 17
   - 44  0  0   -25 33 19   23 38 36    53   -22  -24 50 57  -26 16  1
   - 45  0  0   -25 35  9   23 38 55    53   -21  -24 52 48  -26 17 51
   - 46  0  0   -25 37  7   23 39 14    52   -20  -24 54 45  -26 19 50
   - 47  0  0   -25 39 12   23 39 33    52   -20  -24 56 49  -26 21 55
   - 48  0  0   -25 41 24   23 39 52    51   -19  -24 59  1  -26 24  7
   - 49  0  0   -25 43 43   23 40 10    51   -18  -25  1 19  -26 26 26
   - 50  0  0   -25 46  9   23 40 29    50   -18  -25  3 45  -26 28 53
   - 51  0  0   -25 48 42   23 40 47    50   -17  -25  6 18  -26 31 26
   - 52  0  0   -25 51 22   23 41  5    49   -16  -25  8 57  -26 34  7
   - 53  0  0   -25 54  9   23 41 23    49   -15  -25 11 44  -26 36 55
   - 54  0  0   -25 57  3   23 41 41    48   -15  -25 14 37  -26 39 49
   - 55  0  0   -26  0  4   23 41 59    47   -14  -25 17 38  -26 42 51
   - 56  0  0   -26  3 12   23 42 16    47   -13  -25 20 45  -26 45 59
   - 57  0  0   -26  6 26   23 42 33    46   -12  -25 23 59  -26 49 14
   - 58  0  0   -26  9 48   23 42 51    46   -12  -25 27 20  -26 52 36
   - 59  0  0   -26 13 16   23 43  8    45   -11  -25 30 47  -26 56  5
   - 60  0  0   -26 16 51   23 43 24    44   -10  -25 34 22  -26 59 40
   - 61  0  0   -26 20 33   23 43 41    44    -9  -25 38  3  -27  3 23
   - 62  0  0   -26 24 21   23 43 57    43    -9  -25 41 50  -27  7 12
   - 63  0  0   -26 28 16   23 44 14    42    -8  -25 45 45  -27 11  7
   - 64  0  0   -26 32 17   23 44 30    42    -7  -25 49 45  -27 15  9
   - 65  0  0   -26 36 25   23 44 46    41    -6  -25 53 53  -27 19 18
   - 66  0  0   -26 40 39   23 45  1    40    -6  -25 58  6  -27 23 33
   - 67  0  0   -26 45  0   23 45 17    39    -5  -26  2 26  -27 27 54
   - 68  0  0   -26 49 27   23 45 32    39    -4  -26  6 53  -27 32 22
   ........................... shortened .............................

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory                Private :
Petrin 205                          Werichova 950
118 46  Praha 1                     152 00  Praha 5 - Barrandov     |_|_|
Czech Republic                      Czech Republic                  /   \
Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz                                |-O-O-|
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