Update for (21) Lutetia - January 16/17, 2002

Jan Manek's update

                       IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
            (21) Lutetia / TYC 1407-00130-1 on January 16/17, 2002
                 visible from S Spain and S Portugal in Europe,
                            plus Canada from NE to SW


Summary 

In the night of January 16/17, 2002 a faint 10.1 mag star TYC 1407-00130-1 will be occulted by a 100 km asteroid (21) Lutetia. This update is based on USNO/Flagstaff and TMO astrometry for the asteroid and UCAC star position.

The updated path shows ~1.5 path widths south shift with time ~0.2 minutes later compared to Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction. Major contribution to this shift had new UCAC star position, different from Tycho-2 by 0.12" in declination.

Updated path runs over very SW Spain ~3:33.5 UT and south Portugal ~3:34 UT, with Lisbon on north limit. At 3:39 UT path enters North America north of Newfoundland island and runs to west over middle Quebec ~3:40 UT, north Ontario ~3:41 UT, middle Manitoba ~3:41.5 UT, mid-south Saskatchewan ~3:42 UT, south Alberta ~3:42.3 UT north of Calgary and finally south British Columbia ~3:42.6 UT. Please check the path chart for details.

The event at one glimpse:
 * date and approx. UT time of event: January 17, 2002 @ 03:34 UT (Euro)
                                                         03:42 UT (North Am.)
 * magnitude of target star: 10.1
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.6
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.8
 * path description: given above
 * Goffin's original chart reference: A02_0104

The occultation path:
 * approximate ground width [km]: 110
 * uncertainty [path widths]: 1.2
 * uncertainty in time [s]: 10
 * map: below
 * remarks: Path uncertainities are given according to nominal star
    position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.

Data for the target star:
 * name: TYC 1407-00130-1
 * constellation: Cancer
 * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 09h 06m 04.6467s; +20o 08' 48.496"
 * position source: UCAC + Tycho-2 proper motion
 * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.03" (0.015", 0.030")
 * V mag [mag]: 10.13
 * B-V [mag]: +0.86
 * remarks:
     Recent UCAC position was provided by Marion and Norbert Zacharias.
     Target star is in east Cancer, 6 degrees east of open cluster M44. Only 7'
     east of target is 7.6 mag star SAO 99309.

Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE7):
 * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
 * field is 1.5x1.5 degrees
 * limiting magnitude is 13.0
 * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers





Data for the minor planet:
 * general information:
     number, name: (21) Lutetia
     approx. diameter [km]: 100
 * orbital information
     orbit source: calculation Manek
     source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen)
     number of used observations: 94 USNO, 17 TMO
     number of rejected observations: 7 USNO
     time covered by the observations: 1998 01 29 - 2002 01 08
     rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.06", 0.07"
     estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.06", 0.07"
     remarks:

Data for the event:
 * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 03:35.6 UT
 * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 11.4
 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 4.805
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.6
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.8
 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 34.83
 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 163, 12%
 * remarks:

Calculator(s): Jan Manek








Path coordinates:
                                                   Latitude   Latitude
                  Centre               Altitude       Path Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.   star   sun   Limit 1    Limit 2
   ........................... shortened .............................
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "
      0  0  0    33 44 34    3 32 55    58   -44   34 19 31   33  9 49
   -  2  0  0    34 44 30    3 33 10    59   -45   35 19 23   34  9 48
   -  4  0  0    35 43 12    3 33 25    60   -47   36 18  0   35  8 36
   -  6  0  0    36 40 37    3 33 41    61   -48   37 15 20   36  6  6
   -  8  0  0    37 36 41    3 33 56    62   -49   38 11 17   37  2 16
   - 10  0  0    38 31 19    3 34 11    63   -51   39  5 48   37 57  1
   - 12  0  0    39 24 30    3 34 26    63   -52   39 58 51   38 50 19
   - 14  0  0    40 16 10    3 34 41    64   -53   40 50 23   39 42  7
   - 16  0  0    41  6 17    3 34 55    64   -54   41 40 22   40 32 23
   - 18  0  0    41 54 50    3 35 10    65   -55   42 28 46   41 21  5
   ........................... shortened .............................
   - 50  0  0    51 12 41    3 38 26    57   -60   51 43 54   50 41 36
   - 52  0  0    51 34 22    3 38 37    56   -59   52  5 27   51  3 25
   - 54  0  0    51 54 37    3 38 47    55   -59   52 25 33   51 23 48
   - 56  0  0    52 13 26    3 38 56    54   -58   52 44 14   51 42 45
   - 58  0  0    52 30 50    3 39  6    53   -58   53  1 32   52  0 17
   - 60  0  0    52 46 52    3 39 15    52   -57   53 17 26   52 16 25
   - 62  0  0    53  1 31    3 39 24    51   -57   53 31 59   52 31 10
   - 64  0  0    53 14 49    3 39 33    50   -56   53 45 11   52 44 34
   - 66  0  0    53 26 46    3 39 42    49   -56   53 57  3   52 56 37
   - 68  0  0    53 37 24    3 39 50    48   -55   54  7 36   53  7 19
   - 70  0  0    53 46 43    3 39 59    47   -54   54 16 50   53 16 43
   - 72  0  0    53 54 43    3 40  7    46   -54   54 24 47   53 24 47
   - 74  0  0    54  1 26    3 40 15    45   -53   54 31 27   53 31 33
   - 76  0  0    54  6 52    3 40 22    44   -52   54 36 50   53 37  2
   - 78  0  0    54 11  1    3 40 30    43   -51   54 40 56   53 41 13
   - 80  0  0    54 13 53    3 40 38    42   -51   54 43 47   53 44  6
   - 82  0  0    54 15 29    3 40 45    41   -50   54 45 22   53 45 43
   - 84  0  0    54 15 48    3 40 52    40   -49   54 45 41   53 46  3
   - 86  0  0    54 14 51    3 40 59    39   -48   54 44 44   53 45  5
   - 88  0  0    54 12 37    3 41  6    38   -47   54 42 31   53 42 51
   - 90  0  0    54  9  7    3 41 13    37   -46   54 39  2   53 39 19
   - 92  0  0    54  4 19    3 41 19    35   -45   54 34 16   53 34 29
   - 94  0  0    53 58 13    3 41 26    34   -44   54 28 13   53 28 21
   - 96  0  0    53 50 49    3 41 32    33   -44   54 20 52   53 20 54
   - 98  0  0    53 42  6    3 41 38    32   -43   54 12 13   53 12  7
   -100  0  0    53 32  4    3 41 44    31   -42   54  2 15   53  2  0
   -102  0  0    53 20 41    3 41 50    30   -41   53 50 57   52 50 32
   -104  0  0    53  7 56    3 41 55    29   -40   53 38 17   52 37 42
   -106  0  0    52 53 49    3 42  1    27   -38   53 24 16   52 23 29
   -108  0  0    52 38 18    3 42  6    26   -37   53  8 52   52  7 52
   -110  0  0    52 21 22    3 42 11    25   -36   52 52  2   51 50 48
   -112  0  0    52  2 59    3 42 16    24   -35   52 33 48   51 32 18
   -114  0  0    51 43  9    3 42 21    23   -34   52 14  5   51 12 20
   -116  0  0    51 21 49    3 42 26    21   -33   51 52 54   50 50 53
   -118  0  0    50 58 59    3 42 30    20   -32   51 30 13   50 27 54
   -120  0  0    50 34 37    3 42 34    19   -30   51  6  1   50  3 22
   -122  0  0    50  8 41    3 42 38    17   -29   50 40 14   49 37 16
   -124  0  0    49 41 10    3 42 42    16   -28   50 12 53   49  9 35
   -126  0  0    49 12  1    3 42 46    15   -27   49 43 55   48 40 16
   -128  0  0    48 41 14    3 42 49    13   -25   49 13 19   48  9 19
   -130  0  0    48  8 47    3 42 52    12   -24   48 41  3   47 36 41
   -132  0  0    47 34 39    3 42 55    10   -23   48  7  6   47  2 21
   -134  0  0    46 58 48    3 42 57     9   -21   47 31 26   46 26 18
   -136  0  0    46 21 12    3 42 59     8   -20   46 54  2   45 48 32
   -138  0  0    45 41 51    3 43  1     6   -18   46 14 53   45  8 59
   ........................... shortened .............................

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory                Private :
Petrin 205                          Werichova 950
118 46  Praha 1                     152 00  Praha 5 - Barrandov     |_|_|
Czech Republic                      Czech Republic                  /   \
Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz                                |-O-O-|
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