Update for (345) Tercidina - October 31, 2002

Jan Manek's PRELIMINARY update

                    IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
          (345) Tercidina / HIP 19499 = SAO 93802 on October 31, 2002
        visible from Russia, W Georgia, middle Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt


Summary 

In the evening of October 31, 2002 a bright 9.0 mag star HIP 19499 = SAO 93802 will be occulted by a 99 km asteroid (345) Tercidina. This update is based on USNO/Flagstaff, TMO, Geneca, Gnosca and Bordeaux-Floirac astrometry for the asteroid and Hipparcos star position.

The updated path shows ~1 path width east shift with time ~0.2 minutes earlier compared to Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction.

Updated path runs over european Russia from NE to SW with following cities in path or on limit - Syktyvkar ~19:15.7 UT, Kazan ~19:16.9 UT, Volgograd ~19:18.6 UT and Stavropol ~19:19.5 UT. Follows western tip of Georgia ~19:20 UT, middle Turkey around 19:21 UT, Cyprus ~19:22 UT and Egypt with Alexandria ~19:23 UT. Please check the path chart for details.

Clear sky and good luck !!!

The event at one glimpse:
 * date and approx. UT time of event: October 31, 2002 @ 19:17 UT
 * magnitude of target star: 9.0
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.8
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 11.9
 * path description: given above
 * Goffin's original chart reference: A02_1034

The occultation path:
 * approximate ground width [km]: 160
 * uncertainty [path widths]: 0.4
 * uncertainty in time [s]: 5
 * map: below
 * remarks: Path uncertainties are given according to nominal star
    position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.

Data for the target star:
 * name: HIP 19499 = SAO 93802 = PPM 119675 = TYC 1251-00139-1
 * constellation: Taurus
 * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 04h 10m 40.9253s; +15o 14' 13.327"
 * position source: Hippparcos
 * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.02" (0.02", 0.01")
 * V mag [mag]: 8.99
 * B-V [mag]: +1.04
 * remarks:
    Target star is in middle Taurus, about 4 degrees west of Hyades cluster center.
    !!! IMPORTANT !!!
    Purple stars in identification chart are so called 'non-star' objects in GSC; in dense fields
    the 'non-stars' are often real stars or blends of close pairs. Be careful about this.

Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE7):
 * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
 * field is 6.0x6.0 degrees
 * limiting magnitude is 12.0
 * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers
 * remarks:





Data for the minor planet:
 * general information:
     number, name: (345) Tercidina
     approx. diameter [km]: 100
 * orbital information
     orbit source: calculation Manek
     source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen),
                                Geneva (Behrend), Gnosca (Sposetti), Bordeaux-Floirac
     number of used observations: 81 USNO, 15 TMO, 8(1) Geneva, 14(3) Gnosca, 3 Bordeaux
     number of rejected observations: 3 USNO, 1 TMO
     time covered by the observations: 1988 11 06 - 2002 10 11
     rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.08", 0.07"
     estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.03", 0.03"
     remarks: Recent oposition astrometry by Stefano Sposetti from 2 night was combined to 3 mean positions.
     Similarly Geneva astrometry was used to form 1 mean position.

Data for the event:
 * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 19:18.8 UT
 * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 11.7
 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 6.946
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.8
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 11.9
 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 32.60
 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 98, 23%
 * remarks:

Elements for WinOccult:
============ cut here ===========================================
 2002 Oct 31
345 Tercidina
19h 18.8m UT
HIP 19499    9.0    4 10 40.925 15 14 13.33
11.7     99   11.9   1.266    -1.712    -21.22
 -266.946  15.244  -113.79  -14.24
 19.3131  -.51255   .59870 -3.56167 -3.05304 -0.00247  0.00005
2000    330.47157420021023.00000230.295284212.8419729.746975  0.060811202.325081652.183690668.715   0.10
RATE 2.7800120 .0000000 .0000000 .0000000 .00000000 .00000000 .00000000
============ cut here ===========================================


Calculator(s): Jan Manek








Path coordinates:

                  Center               Altitude       Path Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.   star   sun   Limit 1    Limit 2
   ........................... shortened .............................
                                                  Longitude  Longitude
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "
     51  4 24    71  0  0   19 13 55    29   -32   48 48 15   53 18  1
     51 12 50    70  0  0   19 14  6    29   -33   49  3 28   53 19 57
     51 16 25    69  0  0   19 14 17    30   -34   49 13  4   53 17 44
     51 15 48    68  0  0   19 14 28    31   -35   49 17 49   53 11 55
     51 11 30    67  0  0   19 14 39    31   -36   49 18 21   53  2 55
     51  3 56    66  0  0   19 14 50    32   -37   49 15  9   52 51  7
     50 53 28    65  0  0   19 15  2    32   -38   49  8 39   52 36 48
     50 40 24    64  0  0   19 15 14    33   -39   48 59 11   52 20 13
     50 24 59    63  0  0   19 15 26    33   -40   48 47  4   52  1 36
     50  7 26    62  0  0   19 15 38    34   -41   48 32 31   51 41  6
     49 47 55    61  0  0   19 15 51    34   -42   48 15 45   51 18 53
     49 26 35    60  0  0   19 16  3    35   -43   47 56 58   50 55  4
     49  3 34    59  0  0   19 16 16    35   -43   47 36 18   50 29 46
     48 38 59    58  0  0   19 16 29    36   -44   47 13 52   50  3  4
     48 12 56    57  0  0   19 16 42    36   -45   46 49 48   49 35  3
     47 45 29    56  0  0   19 16 55    36   -46   46 24 11   49  5 47
     47 16 42    55  0  0   19 17  9    37   -47   45 57  6   48 35 20
     46 46 39    54  0  0   19 17 22    37   -47   45 28 37   48  3 44
     46 15 23    53  0  0   19 17 36    37   -48   44 58 48   47 31  2
     45 42 56    52  0  0   19 17 50    37   -49   44 27 41   46 57 16
     45  9 20    51  0  0   19 18  4    38   -49   43 55 20   46 22 27
     44 34 37    50  0  0   19 18 18    38   -50   43 21 45   45 46 36
     43 58 48    49  0  0   19 18 32    38   -51   42 46 59   45  9 44
     43 21 54    48  0  0   19 18 46    38   -51   42 11  2   44 31 53
     42 43 55    47  0  0   19 19  0    38   -52   41 33 56   43 53  2
     42  4 52    46  0  0   19 19 15    38   -52   40 55 41   43 13 11
     41 24 45    45  0  0   19 19 29    38   -53   40 16 17   42 32 20
     40 43 33    44  0  0   19 19 44    37   -53   39 35 44   41 50 30
     40  1 16    43  0  0   19 19 59    37   -54   38 54  1   41  7 38
     39 17 54    42  0  0   19 20 13    37   -54   38 11  9   40 23 45
     38 33 24    41  0  0   19 20 28    37   -54   37 27  6   39 38 48
     37 47 47    40  0  0   19 20 43    36   -55   36 41 50   38 52 48
     37  0 59    39  0  0   19 20 58    36   -55   35 55 21   38  5 41
     36 12 59    38  0  0   19 21 12    36   -55   35  7 35   37 17 27
     35 23 46    37  0  0   19 21 27    35   -55   34 18 31   36 28  3
     34 33 16    36  0  0   19 21 42    35   -55   33 28  6   35 37 25
     33 41 26    35  0  0   19 21 57    34   -55   32 36 17   34 45 33
     32 48 12    34  0  0   19 22 11    34   -55   31 43  0   33 52 21
     31 53 32    33  0  0   19 22 26    33   -54   30 48 12   32 57 47
     30 57 21    32  0  0   19 22 41    32   -54   29 51 47   32  1 47
     29 59 33    31  0  0   19 22 55    31   -54   28 53 41   31  4 15
     29  0  4    30  0  0   19 23 10    31   -53   27 53 47   30  5  7
     27 58 46    29  0  0   19 23 24    30   -53   26 51 58   29  4 16
     26 55 33    28  0  0   19 23 38    29   -52   25 48  7   28  1 36
     25 50 16    27  0  0   19 23 52    28   -51   24 42  5   26 56 59
     24 42 45    26  0  0   19 24  6    27   -51   23 33 40   25 50 17
     23 32 50    25  0  0   19 24 20    26   -50   22 22 42   24 41 18
     22 20 18    24  0  0   19 24 33    25   -49   21  8 55   23 29 53
   ........................... shortened .............................

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory                Private :
Petrin 205                          Werichova 950
118 46  Praha 1                     152 00  Praha 5 - Barrandov     |_|_|
Czech Republic                      Czech Republic                  /   \
Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz                                |-O-O-|
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