Update for (132) Aethra - January 11/12, 2003
Update computed by Jan Manek; issued 01 Jan 2003 12:46 +0100 (CET)
Jan Manek's update
IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
(132) Aethra / TYC 1231-01256-1 on January 11/12, 2003
visible from N Finland, N Sweden, Norway, England, NW Spain,
Portugal and western Africa
Summary
In the night of January 11/12, 2003 an 11.2 mag star TYC 1231-01256-1
will be occulted by a 47 km asteroid (132) Aethra. This update is based on
USNO/Flagstaff and TMO astrometry for the asteroid and recent UCAC star position.
The updated path shows ~2 path width east shift with time 0.4 minutes later compared to
Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction.
Updated path runs over N Finland ~22:55.0 UT, N Sweden ~22:55.5 UT, Norway ~22:56.0 UT,
England from NE to SW around 22:57.5 UT, just grazes french coast near Brest ~22:58.3 UT followed by
NW Spain ~22:59.3 UT, Portugal from north to south along coast around ~22:59.7 UT with both Porto and
Lisbon in path. Later path runs over western Africa. Please check the path chart for details.
V magnitude given in Tycho-2 is spurious, I have adopted for the prediction approximate visual
magnitude 11.2 based on UCAC magnitude and GSC magnitude. From this the expected brightness drop is
1.8 magnitude. If the Tycho-2 magnitude is real then only 1.0 mag drop (still enough for visual observation)
can be expected. I cannot exclude the target star is unknown variable; it is not listed neither in GCVS, nor in NSV.
Can someone check the situation and report what is closer to reality - 11.2 mag or 12.4 mag ?
Clear sky and good luck !!!
The event at one glimpse:
* date and approx. UT time of event: January 11, 2003 @ 22:58 UT (Europe)
* magnitude of target star: 11.2
* magnitude drop [mag]: 1.8
* estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.7
* path description: given above
* Goffin's original chart reference: A03_0116
The occultation path:
* approximate ground width [km]: 60
* uncertainty [path widths]: 1.3
* uncertainty in time [s]: 7
* map: below
* remarks: Path uncertainties are given according to nominal star
position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.
Data for the target star:
* name: TYC 1231-01256-1
* constellation: Aries
* J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 03h 06m 14.1680s; +20o 33' 36.734"
* position source: recent UCAC position combined with Tycho-2 proper motion
* estimated accuracy ["]: 0.02" (0.02", 0.01")
* V mag [mag]: 11.2 (12.42 Tycho-2)
* B-V [mag]: -0.44 ???
* remarks:
V magnitude given in Tycho-2 is spurious, I have adopted for the prediction
approximate visual magnitude 11.2 based on UCAC magnitude and GSC magnitude.
I cannot exclude the target star is unknown variable; it is not listed neither in GCVS, nor in NSV.
Recent UCAC position was provided by Marion and Norbert Zacharias.
Target star is in east Aries, about 1.5 degrees northwest of 4.3 mag star delta Arietis = SAO 93328
or 7' southwest of 8.7 mag star SAO 75737.
!!! IMPORTANT !!!
Purple stars in identification chart are so called 'non-star' objects in GSC; in dense fields
the 'non-stars' are often real stars or blends of close pairs. Be careful about this.
Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE8):
* occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
* field is 3.0x3.0 degrees
* limiting magnitude is 13.5
* labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers
* remarks:
Data for the minor planet:
* general information:
number, name: (132) Aethra
approx. diameter [km]: 47
* orbital information
orbit source: calculation Manek
source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen)
number of used observations: 155 USNO, 61 TMO
number of rejected observations: 12 USNO, 8 TMO
time covered by the observations: 1997 05 22 - 2002 12 04
rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.06", 0.06"
estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.04", 0.04"
remarks:
Data for the event:
* UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 23:02.4 UT
* approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 12.8
* geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 6.268
* magnitude drop [mag]: 1.8
* estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.7
* apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 35.15
* angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 14, 63%
* remarks:
Elements for WinOccult:
============ cut here ===========================================
2003 Jan 11
132 Aethra
23h 2.4m UT
31-01256-1 11.2 3 6 14.168 20 33 36.73TYC 1231-01256-1
12.8 47 4.7 1.403 0.707 -33.71
-50.069 20.570 196.42 -21.75
23.0392 .56777 .16716 1.57940 -5.38035 0.00473 0.00121
2000 321.1170952003 111.00000254.327966258.95406825.058532 0.388761132.608245871.594261259.385 0.15
RATE 2.3398140 .0000000 .0000000 .0000000 .00000000 .00000000 .00000000
============ cut here ===========================================
Calculator(s): Jan Manek
Path coordinates:
Center Altitude Path Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. star sun Limit 1 Limit 2
........................... shortened .............................
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o ' " o ' "
Latitude Latitude
42 0 0 68 52 20 22 54 31 19 -41 69 8 5 68 36 32
41 0 0 68 49 29 22 54 32 19 -41 69 5 16 68 33 38
40 0 0 68 46 9 22 54 34 20 -41 69 1 60 68 30 16
39 0 0 68 42 22 22 54 36 20 -41 68 58 15 68 26 25
38 0 0 68 38 5 22 54 38 20 -42 68 54 3 68 22 5
37 0 0 68 33 20 22 54 39 21 -42 68 49 21 68 17 15
36 0 0 68 28 5 22 54 41 21 -42 68 44 10 68 11 55
35 0 0 68 22 19 22 54 43 22 -42 68 38 30 68 6 4
34 0 0 68 16 2 22 54 45 22 -42 68 32 18 67 59 42
33 0 0 68 9 13 22 54 47 22 -43 68 25 35 67 52 46
32 0 0 68 1 51 22 54 49 23 -43 68 18 20 67 45 18
31 0 0 67 53 55 22 54 52 23 -43 68 10 31 67 37 15
30 0 0 67 45 24 22 54 54 23 -43 68 2 8 67 28 36
29 0 0 67 36 17 22 54 56 24 -44 67 53 9 67 19 21
28 0 0 67 26 33 22 54 58 24 -44 67 43 34 67 9 28
27 0 0 67 16 9 22 55 1 25 -44 67 33 20 66 58 55
26 0 0 67 5 6 22 55 3 25 -44 67 22 26 66 47 41
25 0 0 66 53 20 22 55 6 25 -45 67 10 51 66 35 44
24 0 0 66 40 50 22 55 8 26 -45 66 58 33 66 23 2
23 0 0 66 27 34 22 55 11 26 -45 66 45 30 66 9 34
22 0 0 66 13 30 22 55 14 27 -45 66 31 39 65 55 17
21 0 0 65 58 36 22 55 17 27 -46 66 16 59 65 40 8
20 0 0 65 42 48 22 55 20 28 -46 66 1 26 65 24 5
19 0 0 65 26 4 22 55 23 28 -46 65 44 59 65 7 4
18 0 0 65 8 21 22 55 27 28 -47 65 27 33 64 49 4
17 0 0 64 49 35 22 55 30 29 -47 65 9 5 64 29 59
16 0 0 64 29 42 22 55 34 29 -47 64 49 32 64 9 46
15 0 0 64 8 38 22 55 38 30 -48 64 28 50 63 48 20
14 0 0 63 46 19 22 55 42 30 -48 64 6 53 63 25 38
13 0 0 63 22 38 22 55 46 31 -48 63 43 37 63 1 32
12 0 0 62 57 30 22 55 50 32 -49 63 18 55 62 35 58
11 0 0 62 30 49 22 55 55 32 -49 62 52 42 62 8 47
10 0 0 62 2 26 22 55 60 33 -49 62 24 51 61 39 54
9 0 0 61 32 14 22 56 5 33 -50 61 55 12 61 9 8
8 0 0 61 0 3 22 56 10 34 -50 61 23 37 60 36 20
7 0 0 60 25 43 22 56 16 35 -51 60 49 55 60 1 19
6 0 0 59 48 59 22 56 23 35 -51 60 13 55 59 23 51
5 0 0 59 9 39 22 56 29 36 -51 59 35 22 58 43 43
4 0 0 58 27 25 22 56 36 37 -52 58 54 0 58 0 35
3 0 0 57 41 57 22 56 44 37 -52 58 9 31 57 14 8
2 0 0 56 52 53 22 56 52 38 -53 57 21 31 56 23 56
1 0 0 55 59 43 22 57 1 39 -54 56 29 34 55 29 31
0 0 0 55 1 54 22 57 11 40 -54 55 33 8 54 30 16
- 1 0 0 53 58 43 22 57 22 41 -55 54 31 33 53 25 26
- 2 0 0 52 49 17 22 57 34 42 -55 53 23 58 52 14 4
- 3 0 0 51 32 27 22 57 47 43 -56 52 9 19 50 54 57
- 4 0 0 50 6 43 22 58 2 44 -57 50 46 13 49 26 25
- 5 0 0 48 29 59 22 58 18 45 -58 49 12 46 47 46 12
Longitude Longitude
- 5 17 7 48 0 0 22 58 24 45 -58 - 5 41 53 - 4 52 12
- 5 49 25 47 0 0 22 58 34 46 -59 - 6 13 33 - 5 25 8
- 6 19 18 46 0 0 22 58 45 47 -59 - 6 42 51 - 5 55 36
- 6 46 56 45 0 0 22 58 55 47 -59 - 7 9 58 - 6 23 48
- 7 12 31 44 0 0 22 59 6 48 -60 - 7 35 2 - 6 49 52
- 7 36 9 43 0 0 22 59 17 49 -60 - 7 58 12 - 7 13 59
- 7 57 59 42 0 0 22 59 27 49 -61 - 8 19 36 - 7 36 15
- 8 18 7 41 0 0 22 59 38 50 -61 - 8 39 20 - 7 56 48
- 8 36 40 40 0 0 22 59 49 50 -62 - 8 57 30 - 8 15 44
- 8 53 43 39 0 0 22 59 60 51 -62 - 9 14 12 - 8 33 9
- 9 9 21 38 0 0 23 0 11 51 -62 - 9 29 30 - 8 49 7
- 9 23 38 37 0 0 23 0 22 52 -63 - 9 43 28 - 9 3 43
- 9 36 39 36 0 0 23 0 33 52 -63 - 9 56 12 - 9 17 2
- 9 48 28 35 0 0 23 0 44 52 -63 - 10 7 44 - 9 29 7
- 9 59 7 34 0 0 23 0 55 53 -63 - 10 18 8 - 9 40 2
- 10 8 39 33 0 0 23 1 6 53 -64 - 10 27 26 - 9 49 49
- 10 17 8 32 0 0 23 1 17 53 -64 - 10 35 41 - 9 58 32
- 10 24 36 31 0 0 23 1 28 53 -64 - 10 42 56 - 10 6 12
- 10 31 5 30 0 0 23 1 39 53 -64 - 10 49 13 - 10 12 53
- 10 36 36 29 0 0 23 1 50 53 -64 - 10 54 33 - 10 18 36
- 10 41 13 28 0 0 23 2 1 54 -65 - 10 58 59 - 10 23 23
- 10 44 56 27 0 0 23 2 13 54 -65 - 11 2 32 - 10 27 16
- 10 47 47 26 0 0 23 2 24 54 -65 - 11 5 14 - 10 30 16
- 10 49 47 25 0 0 23 2 35 54 -65 - 11 7 6 - 10 32 25
- 10 50 58 24 0 0 23 2 46 54 -65 - 11 8 9 - 10 33 43
- 10 51 20 23 0 0 23 2 57 53 -65 - 11 8 23 - 10 34 12
- 10 50 54 22 0 0 23 3 8 53 -65 - 11 7 51 - 10 33 53
........................... shortened .............................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory Private :
Petrin 205 Werichova 950
118 46 Praha 1 152 00 Praha 5 - Barrandov |_|_|
Czech Republic Czech Republic / \
Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz |-O-O-|
--------------------------------------------------------------------U---U---
Be sure to use the RELOAD button of your browser,
so you will surely use the latest version of predictions page!
