Update for (714) Ulula - January 22/23, 2003
Update computed by Jan Manek; issued 09 Jan 2003 22:09 +0100 (CET)
Jan Manek's update
IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
(714) Ulula / TYC 0154-00626-1 on January 22/23, 2003
visible from N Japan, NE China, Mongolia, Khazachstan, S Russia,
Ukraine, NE Hungary, Slovakia, N Austria, S Germany and France
Summary
In the night of January 22/23, 2003 a faint 12.2 mag star TYC 0154-00626-1
will be occulted by a 41 km asteroid (714) Ulula. This update is based on
USNO/Flagstaff and Geneva astrometry for the asteroid and recent UCAC star position.
The updated path shows ~2 path width south shift with time 3.7 minutes earlier compared to
Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction.
Steve Preston found that Tycho-2 position is in error by 1.7" and derived new proper motion
combining UCAC and AC2000.2 positions. This 1.7" difference had the main influence on large time correction.
Also V magnitude given in Tycho-2 seems to be too bright so I have adopted 12.2 as the probable visual magnitude of the target.
This leads to only 0.9 magnitude drop placing the event close to hard to observe for visual observers.
Updated path runs over N Japan ~17:27 UT, NE China ~17:29, Mongolia ~17:30-17:33, Khazachstan ~17:34-17:39 UT,
S Russia ~17:39 UT with Volgograd in path, Ukraine ~17:40-17:41, NE Hungary ~17:41.8 UT, Slovakia ~17:42.0 UT,
N Austria ~17:42.3 UT, S Germany ~17:42.7 UT and France ~17:43.2 UT.
Please check the path chart for details.
Clear sky and good luck !!!
The event at one glimpse:
* date and approx. UT time of event: January 22, 2003 @ 18:42 UT (Europe)
* magnitude of target star: 12.2
* magnitude drop [mag]: 0.9
* estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.8
* path description: given above
* Goffin's original chart reference: A03_0154
The occultation path:
* approximate ground width [km]: 75
* uncertainty [path widths]: 1.6
* uncertainty in time [s]: 8
* map: below
* remarks: Path uncertainties are given according to nominal star
position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.
Data for the target star:
* name: TYC 0154-00626-1
* constellation: Monoceros
* J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 06h 32m 39.8823s; +04o 14' 42.524"
* position source: recent UCAC position combined with AC 2002.2 position
* estimated accuracy ["]: 0.03" (0.02", 0.02")
* V mag [mag]: 12.2
* B-V [mag]: +?.??
* remarks:
Steve Preston found that Tycho-2 position is in error by 1.7" and derived new proper motion
combining UCAC and AC2000.2 positions.
Target star is in west Monoceros, about 3.3 degrees east of 4.4 mag star epsilon Monocerotis = SAO 113810,
just south of Rosetta nebula complex = NGC 2238/39.
!!! IMPORTANT !!!
Purple stars in identification chart are so called 'non-star' objects in GSC; in dense fields
the 'non-stars' are often real stars or blends of close pairs. Be careful about this.
Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE7):
* occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
* field is 2.0x2.0 degrees
* limiting magnitude is 13.0
* labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers
* remarks:
Data for the minor planet:
* general information:
number, name: (714) Ulula
approx. diameter [km]: 41
* orbital information
orbit source: calculation Manek
source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), Geneva (Raoul Behrend)
number of used observations: 121 USNO, 2 (9) Geneva
number of rejected observations: 14 USNO
time covered by the observations: 1998 10 23 - 2003 01 07
rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.06", 0.06"
estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.04", 0.04"
remarks: Two mean positions computed from nine Geneva original positions.
Data for the event:
* UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 17:35.0 UT
* approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 12.5
* geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 5.918
* magnitude drop [mag]: 0.9
* estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.8
* apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 28.55
* angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 81, 78%
* remarks:
Elements for WinOccult:
============ cut here ===========================================
2003 Jan 22
714 Ulula
17h 35.0m UT
54-00626-1 12.2 6 32 39.882 4 14 42.52TYC 0154-00626-1
12.5 41 4.8 1.486 -1.904 1.68
72.765 4.246 279.15 -19.65
17.5829 .03935 .68120 -4.81675 0.28246 0.00238 0.00158
2000 2.979236682003 121.00000231.199799234.14230714.267939 0.057476762.535573002.389836469.075 0.15
RATE 2.4411243 .0000000 .0000000 .0000000 .00000000 .00000000 .00000000
============ cut here ===========================================
Calculator(s): Jan Manek
Path coordinates:
Center Altitude Path Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. star sun Limit 1 Limit 2
........................... shortened .............................
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o ' " o ' "
Latitude Latitude
162 0 0 40 19 10 17 25 58 5 -35 40 34 28 40 3 57
160 0 0 40 28 59 17 26 1 7 -36 40 44 16 40 13 45
158 0 0 40 38 58 17 26 4 8 -38 40 54 16 40 23 44
156 0 0 40 49 9 17 26 8 10 -39 41 4 26 40 33 54
154 0 0 40 59 28 17 26 13 11 -41 41 14 46 40 44 14
152 0 0 41 9 57 17 26 19 13 -42 41 25 15 40 54 43
150 0 0 41 20 33 17 26 25 14 -43 41 35 52 41 5 19
148 0 0 41 31 17 17 26 32 15 -45 41 46 35 41 16 2
146 0 0 41 42 7 17 26 39 17 -46 41 57 25 41 26 52
144 0 0 41 53 2 17 26 47 18 -48 42 8 21 41 37 47
142 0 0 42 4 2 17 26 56 20 -49 42 19 21 41 48 46
140 0 0 42 15 5 17 27 5 21 -50 42 30 24 41 59 50
138 0 0 42 26 11 17 27 15 22 -51 42 41 30 42 10 56
136 0 0 42 37 19 17 27 25 24 -53 42 52 39 42 22 4
134 0 0 42 48 29 17 27 35 25 -54 43 3 48 42 33 13
132 0 0 42 59 39 17 27 47 26 -55 43 14 58 42 44 23
130 0 0 43 10 48 17 27 58 28 -56 43 26 8 42 55 33
128 0 0 43 21 57 17 28 10 29 -57 43 37 17 43 6 41
126 0 0 43 33 3 17 28 23 30 -58 43 48 23 43 17 48
124 0 0 43 44 7 17 28 36 31 -59 43 59 27 43 28 51
122 0 0 43 55 8 17 28 49 32 -60 44 10 28 43 39 52
120 0 0 44 6 4 17 29 3 34 -61 44 21 24 43 50 48
118 0 0 44 16 56 17 29 17 35 -61 44 32 15 44 1 40
116 0 0 44 27 42 17 29 32 36 -62 44 43 1 44 12 26
114 0 0 44 38 21 17 29 46 37 -63 44 53 41 44 23 5
112 0 0 44 48 54 17 30 1 38 -63 45 4 14 44 33 38
110 0 0 44 59 20 17 30 17 39 -63 45 14 39 44 44 4
108 0 0 45 9 37 17 30 32 39 -64 45 24 57 44 54 21
106 0 0 45 19 45 17 30 48 40 -64 45 35 5 45 4 30
104 0 0 45 29 45 17 31 4 41 -64 45 45 4 45 14 29
102 0 0 45 39 34 17 31 20 42 -64 45 54 53 45 24 18
100 0 0 45 49 12 17 31 36 43 -64 46 4 32 45 33 57
98 0 0 45 58 40 17 31 53 43 -64 46 13 59 45 43 25
96 0 0 46 7 56 17 32 9 44 -63 46 23 15 45 52 41
94 0 0 46 16 60 17 32 26 44 -63 46 32 19 46 1 45
92 0 0 46 25 51 17 32 43 45 -62 46 41 10 46 10 36
90 0 0 46 34 29 17 32 60 45 -62 46 49 48 46 19 14
88 0 0 46 42 54 17 33 17 46 -61 46 58 12 46 27 39
86 0 0 46 51 4 17 33 34 46 -61 47 6 23 46 35 50
84 0 0 46 59 1 17 33 51 46 -60 47 14 19 46 43 46
82 0 0 47 6 42 17 34 8 47 -59 47 21 60 46 51 28
80 0 0 47 14 8 17 34 25 47 -58 47 29 26 46 58 54
78 0 0 47 21 18 17 34 43 47 -57 47 36 36 47 6 5
76 0 0 47 28 13 17 34 60 47 -56 47 43 30 47 12 59
74 0 0 47 34 51 17 35 17 47 -55 47 50 8 47 19 38
72 0 0 47 41 12 17 35 34 47 -54 47 56 29 47 25 59
70 0 0 47 47 17 17 35 51 46 -53 48 2 34 47 32 4
68 0 0 47 53 4 17 36 7 46 -52 48 8 21 47 37 51
66 0 0 47 58 34 17 36 24 46 -51 48 13 50 47 43 21
64 0 0 48 3 45 17 36 41 46 -50 48 19 2 47 48 33
62 0 0 48 8 39 17 36 57 45 -49 48 23 55 47 53 27
60 0 0 48 13 14 17 37 14 45 -48 48 28 30 47 58 2
58 0 0 48 17 31 17 37 30 44 -47 48 32 47 48 2 19
56 0 0 48 21 29 17 37 46 44 -45 48 36 44 48 6 17
54 0 0 48 25 8 17 38 2 43 -44 48 40 23 48 9 56
52 0 0 48 28 27 17 38 17 43 -43 48 43 43 48 13 16
50 0 0 48 31 28 17 38 33 42 -42 48 46 43 48 16 17
48 0 0 48 34 9 17 38 48 41 -41 48 49 23 48 18 57
46 0 0 48 36 30 17 39 3 41 -39 48 51 44 48 21 19
44 0 0 48 38 31 17 39 18 40 -38 48 53 45 48 23 20
42 0 0 48 40 12 17 39 33 39 -37 48 55 27 48 25 2
40 0 0 48 41 34 17 39 47 38 -36 48 56 48 48 26 23
38 0 0 48 42 35 17 40 1 37 -34 48 57 49 48 27 24
36 0 0 48 43 16 17 40 15 36 -33 48 58 30 48 28 5
34 0 0 48 43 36 17 40 28 35 -32 48 58 50 48 28 26
32 0 0 48 43 37 17 40 41 34 -30 48 58 51 48 28 26
30 0 0 48 43 17 17 40 54 33 -29 48 58 31 48 28 6
28 0 0 48 42 36 17 41 7 32 -28 48 57 50 48 27 26
26 0 0 48 41 35 17 41 19 31 -27 48 56 49 48 26 25
24 0 0 48 40 14 17 41 31 30 -25 48 55 28 48 25 4
22 0 0 48 38 32 17 41 42 29 -24 48 53 46 48 23 22
20 0 0 48 36 30 17 41 53 28 -23 48 51 44 48 21 20
18 0 0 48 34 7 17 42 4 27 -21 48 49 21 48 18 57
16 0 0 48 31 25 17 42 14 26 -20 48 46 39 48 16 14
14 0 0 48 28 22 17 42 24 25 -19 48 43 36 48 13 11
12 0 0 48 24 58 17 42 33 23 -18 48 40 13 48 9 48
10 0 0 48 21 15 17 42 43 22 -16 48 36 30 48 6 5
8 0 0 48 17 12 17 42 51 21 -15 48 32 27 48 2 2
6 0 0 48 12 49 17 42 59 20 -14 48 28 4 47 57 39
4 0 0 48 8 7 17 43 7 19 -12 48 23 21 47 52 56
2 0 0 48 3 5 17 43 14 17 -11 48 18 20 47 47 54
0 0 0 47 57 44 17 43 21 16 -10 48 12 59 47 42 33
- 2 0 0 47 52 4 17 43 27 15 -9 48 7 19 47 36 52
- 4 0 0 47 46 4 17 43 33 13 -7 48 1 20 47 30 53
- 6 0 0 47 39 47 17 43 39 12 -6 47 55 2 47 24 35
........................... shortened .............................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory Private :
Petrin 205 Werichova 950
118 46 Praha 1 152 00 Praha 5 - Barrandov |_|_|
Czech Republic Czech Republic / \
Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz |-O-O-|
--------------------------------------------------------------------U---U---
Be sure to use the RELOAD button of your browser,
so you will surely use the latest version of predictions page!
