Update for (510) Mabella - February 16/17, 2003

Jan Manek's update

                    IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
         (510) Mabella / TYC 0193-00377-1 on February 16/17, 2003
      visible from Tunisia, Algeria, Spain, N Portugal and Greenland

Summary 

In the night of February 16/17, 2003 a faint 10.5 mag star TYC 0193-00377-1 will be occulted by a 59 km asteroid (510) Mabella. This update is based on USNO/Flagstaff and TMO astrometry for the asteroid and recent UCAC star position.

The updated path shows large ~4 path width SW shift with time 0.1 minutes earlier compared to Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction.

Updated path runs over Tunisia ~3:17.8 UT, Algeria ~3:18.0 UT, Spain from SE to NW around 3:18.7 UT with Madrid on north limit, N Portugal ~3:19.0 UT with Porto on south limit and Greenland. Please check the path chart for details.

Clear sky and good luck !!!

The event at one glimpse:
 * date and approx. UT time of event: February 17, 2003 @ 03:19 UT (Europe)
 * magnitude of target star: 10.5
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 4.0
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.8
 * path description: given above
 * Goffin's original chart reference: A03_0240

The occultation path:
 * approximate ground width [km]: 120
 * uncertainty [path widths]: 1.25
 * uncertainty in time [s]: 6
 * map: below
 * remarks: Path uncertainties are given according to nominal star
    position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.

Data for the target star:
 * name: TYC 0193-00377-1
 * constellation: Canis Minor
 * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 07h 58m 45.7196s; +07o 27' 12.250"
 * position source: recent UCAC position combined with Tycho-2 proper motion
 * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.03" (0.02", 0.02")
 * V mag [mag]: 10.48
 * B-V [mag]: +2.56
 * remarks:
    Target star is in east Canis Monir, about 5.3 degrees NE of 0.5 mag star alpha Canis Monoris = Procyon
    = SAO 115756 or 1.7' SW of 10.3 mag star SAO 116194.
    !!! IMPORTANT !!!
    Purple stars in identification chart are so called 'non-star' objects in GSC; in dense fields
    the 'non-stars' are often real stars or blends of close pairs. Be careful about this.

Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE7):
 * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
 * field is 2.0x2.0 degrees
 * limiting magnitude is 12.5
 * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers
 * remarks: Second chart shows 30' blowup to show correctly the star in Milky Way field.








Data for the minor planet:
 * general information:
     number, name: (510) Mabella
     approx. diameter [km]: 59
 * orbital information
     orbit source: calculation Manek
     source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen)
     number of used observations: 85 USNO, 5 TMO
     number of rejected observations: 12 USNO
     time covered by the observations: 1997 11 08 - 2003 02 01
     rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.07", 0.09"
     estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.04", 0.04"
     remarks:

Data for the event:
 * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 03:22.0 UT
 * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 14.5
 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 4.006
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 4.0
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.8
 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 27.74
 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 34, 100%
 * remarks:

Elements for WinOccult:
============ cut here ===========================================
 2003 Feb 17
510 Mabella
 3h 22.0m UT
93-00377-1  10.5    7 58 45.720  7 27 12.25TYC 0193-00377-1
14.5     59    4.8   2.195    -1.665     12.46
  -77.514   7.451   133.02  -12.15
  3.3669   .38933   .77529 -6.18673  3.11138  0.00294  0.00059
2000    200.2892152003 210.0000090.489970 202.9979839.505303  0.192323732.612003252.109653049.735   0.15
RATE 2.3347670 .0000000 .0000000 .0000000 .00000000 .00000000 .00000000
============ cut here ===========================================

Calculator(s): Jan Manek






Path coordinates:
                  Center               Altitude       Path Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.   star   sun   Limit 1    Limit 2
   ........................... shortened .............................
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                   Latitude   Latitude
     13  0  0    34 22 32    3 17 47     5   -32   34 55 58   33 49 41
     12  0  0    34 35 24    3 17 48     5   -33   35  8 58   34  2 25
     11  0  0    34 49  5    3 17 50     6   -34   35 22 47   34 15 58
     10  0  0    35  3 34    3 17 51     7   -35   35 37 25   34 30 19
      9  0  0    35 18 51    3 17 54     8   -35   35 52 52   34 45 27
      8  0  0    35 34 57    3 17 56     9   -36   36  9  8   35  1 23
      7  0  0    35 51 51    3 17 58    10   -37   36 26 12   35 18  7
      6  0  0    36  9 32    3 18  1    10   -38   36 44  5   35 35 38
      5  0  0    36 28  2    3 18  4    11   -38   37  2 47   35 53 56
      4  0  0    36 47 19    3 18  7    12   -39   37 22 17   36 13  1
      3  0  0    37  7 23    3 18 11    13   -40   37 42 35   36 32 52
      2  0  0    37 28 15    3 18 14    14   -40   38  3 41   36 53 31
      1  0  0    37 49 54    3 18 18    14   -41   38 25 35   37 14 55
      0  0  0    38 12 20    3 18 22    15   -42   38 48 16   37 37  6
   -  1  0  0    38 35 32    3 18 26    16   -42   39 11 45   38  0  3
   -  2  0  0    38 59 31    3 18 31    17   -43   39 36  1   38 23 46
   -  3  0  0    39 24 16    3 18 35    17   -43   40  1  5   38 48 14
   -  4  0  0    39 49 47    3 18 40    18   -44   40 26 55   39 13 27
   -  5  0  0    40 16  4    3 18 45    19   -44   40 53 32   39 39 26
   -  6  0  0    40 43  7    3 18 51    19   -45   41 20 55   40  6  9
   -  7  0  0    41 10 54    3 18 56    20   -45   41 49  4   40 33 36
   -  8  0  0    41 39 27    3 19  2    21   -46   42 17 60   41  1 47
   -  9  0  0    42  8 44    3 19  7    21   -46   42 47 40   41 30 42
   - 10  0  0    42 38 45    3 19 13    22   -46   43 18  7   42  0 20
   - 11  0  0    43  9 30    3 19 20    23   -47   43 49 18   42 30 41
   - 12  0  0    43 40 59    3 19 26    23   -47   44 21 14   43  1 45
   - 13  0  0    44 13 11    3 19 32    24   -47   44 53 54   43 33 31
   - 14  0  0    44 46  6    3 19 39    24   -47   45 27 18   44  5 58
   ........................... shortened .............................

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory                Private :
Petrin 205                          Werichova 950
118 46  Praha 1                     152 00  Praha 5 - Barrandov     |_|_|
Czech Republic                      Czech Republic                  /   \
Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz                                |-O-O-|
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