Update for (417) Suevia - March 19/20, 2003

Jan Manek's update

                    IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
      (417) Suevia / TYC 0790-00973-1 = PPM 124368 on March 19/20, 2003
       visible from Ireland, U.K., Denmark, Latvia, Belarus and Russia

Summary 

In the night of March 19/20, 2003 a faint 10.1 mag star TYC 0790-00973-1 = PPM 124368 will be occulted by a 43 km asteroid (417) Suevia. This update is based on USNO/Flagstaff for the asteroid and recent UCAC star position.

The updated path shows ~0.5 path width south shift with time 1.1 minutes later compared to Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction.

Updated path runs over Ireland ~23:47.4 UT, U.K. ~23:48.0 UT, Denmark ~23:49.0 UT, Latvia ~23:50.1 UT, Belarus ~23:50.4 UT just north of Minsk and finally Russia ~23:50.7 UT just north of Briansk at low altitudes. Please check the path chart for details.

Just few days ago, on March 10, was observed occultation by Suevia in east USA. It occurred approximately 1.5 path width east of the updated one. However due to changing geometry of the apparent orbit it doesn't mean that similar shift will occur for this upcoming occultation. But generally if the nature of the shift had an (unknown) systematic basis, some small SE shift may occur. Clear sky and good luck !!!

The event at one glimpse:
 * date and approx. UT time of event: March 19, 2003 @ 23:49 UT (Europe)
 * magnitude of target star: 10.1
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.7
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 8.2
 * path description: given above
 * Goffin's original chart reference: A03_0333

The occultation path:
 * approximate ground width [km]: 50
 * uncertainty [path widths]: 1.4
 * uncertainty in time [s]: 12
 * map: below
 * remarks: Path uncertainties are given according to nominal star
    position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.

Data for the target star:
 * name: TYC 0790-00973-1 = PPM 124368
 * constellation: Gemini
 * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 07h 43m 39.4794s; +13o 23' 13.959"
 * position source: recent UCAC position combined with Tycho-2 proper motion
 * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.02" (0.02", 0.01")
 * V mag [mag]: 10.13
 * B-V [mag]: +0.67
 * remarks:
    Target star is in very SE Gemini almost on border with Canis Minor, about 8.3 degrees north of 0.5 mag star
    alpha Canis Minoris = Procyon = SAO 115756.
    !!! IMPORTANT !!!
    Purple stars in identification chart are so called 'non-star' objects in GSC; in dense fields
    the 'non-stars' are often real stars or blends of close pairs. Be careful about this.

Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE8):
 * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
 * field is 3.0x3.0 degrees
 * limiting magnitude is 12.5
 * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers
 * remarks: Second chart is 30' blowup to show correctly the target star in the field.








Data for the minor planet:
 * general information:
     number, name: (417) Suevia
     approx. diameter [km]: 43
 * orbital information
     orbit source: calculation Manek
     source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone)
     number of used observations: 111 USNO
     number of rejected observations: 20 USNO
     time covered by the observations: 1998 02 17 - 2003 03 07
     rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.07", 0.07"
     estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.04", 0.04"
     remarks:

Data for the event:
 * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 23:31.9 UT
 * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 13.8
 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 4.554
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.7
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 8.2
 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 13.53
 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 86, 96%
 * remarks:

Elements for WinOccult:
============ cut here ===========================================
 2003 Mar 19
417 Suevia
23h 31.9m UT
90-00973-1  10.1    7 43 39.479 13 23 13.96TYC 0790-00973-1
13.8     43    8.2   1.931     0.777      7.41
  -54.166  13.386   188.96   -0.42
 23.5321  -.18360   .27821  2.48541  1.62940  0.00505 -0.00055
2000    319.3927932003 312.00000346.087105199.8083326.612804  0.133833812.802564612.427486729.345   0.15
RATE 2.1007320 .0000000 .0000000 .0000000 .00000000 .00000000 .00000000
============ cut here ===========================================

Calculator(s): Jan Manek









Path coordinates:
                  Center               Altitude       Path Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.   star   sun   Limit 1    Limit 2
   ........................... shortened .............................
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                   Latitude   Latitude
   - 13  0  0    53  8  6   23 46 35    37   -35   52 55 21   53 20 52
   - 12  0  0    53 18 16   23 46 43    36   -35   53  5 33   53 31  0
   - 11  0  0    53 27 58   23 46 52    36   -35   53 15 18   53 40 40
   - 10  0  0    53 37 13   23 46 60    35   -35   53 24 34   53 49 53
   -  9  0  0    53 46  1   23 47  8    34   -35   53 33 24   53 58 39
   -  8  0  0    53 54 22   23 47 16    34   -36   53 41 47   54  6 58
   -  7  0  0    54  2 16   23 47 24    33   -36   53 49 43   54 14 50
   -  6  0  0    54  9 44   23 47 31    33   -36   53 57 13   54 22 17
   -  5  0  0    54 16 46   23 47 38    32   -36   54  4 16   54 29 17
   -  4  0  0    54 23 23   23 47 46    31   -36   54 10 55   54 35 52
   -  3  0  0    54 29 34   23 47 53    31   -36   54 17  7   54 42  2
   -  2  0  0    54 35 20   23 47 60    30   -36   54 22 55   54 47 47
   -  1  0  0    54 40 42   23 48  6    30   -36   54 28 17   54 53  7
      0  0  0    54 45 38   23 48 13    29   -36   54 33 15   54 58  3
      1  0  0    54 50 10   23 48 19    28   -36   54 37 48   55  2 34
      2  0  0    54 54 18   23 48 26    28   -36   54 41 56   55  6 41
      3  0  0    54 58  2   23 48 32    27   -36   54 45 41   55 10 23
      4  0  0    55  1 21   23 48 38    27   -35   54 49  1   55 13 43
      5  0  0    55  4 17   23 48 44    26   -35   54 51 58   55 16 38
      6  0  0    55  6 50   23 48 49    25   -35   54 54 31   55 19 10
      7  0  0    55  8 59   23 48 55    25   -35   54 56 40   55 21 18
      8  0  0    55 10 44   23 49  1    24   -35   54 58 26   55 23  3
      9  0  0    55 12  6   23 49  6    24   -35   54 59 48   55 24 25
     10  0  0    55 13  5   23 49 11    23   -35   55  0 47   55 25 24
     11  0  0    55 13 40   23 49 16    23   -35   55  1 22   55 25 59
     12  0  0    55 13 53   23 49 21    22   -35   55  1 35   55 26 12
     13  0  0    55 13 42   23 49 26    21   -35   55  1 24   55 26  2
     14  0  0    55 13  9   23 49 31    21   -35   55  0 50   55 25 28
     15  0  0    55 12 12   23 49 35    20   -35   54 59 53   55 24 32
     16  0  0    55 10 52   23 49 40    20   -35   54 58 33   55 23 13
     17  0  0    55  9 10   23 49 44    19   -34   54 56 50   55 21 30
     18  0  0    55  7  4   23 49 48    19   -34   54 54 43   55 19 25
     19  0  0    55  4 35   23 49 53    18   -34   54 52 14   55 16 57
     20  0  0    55  1 43   23 49 57    17   -34   54 49 21   55 14  6
     21  0  0    54 58 28   23 50  0    17   -34   54 46  5   55 10 51
     22  0  0    54 54 49   23 50  4    16   -34   54 42 25   55  7 14
     23  0  0    54 50 47   23 50  8    16   -34   54 38 22   55  3 13
     24  0  0    54 46 22   23 50 11    15   -33   54 33 56   54 58 49
     25  0  0    54 41 33   23 50 15    14   -33   54 29  6   54 54  2
     26  0  0    54 36 21   23 50 18    14   -33   54 23 52   54 48 51
     27  0  0    54 30 45   23 50 21    13   -33   54 18 14   54 43 16
     28  0  0    54 24 45   23 50 24    13   -33   54 12 13   54 37 17
     29  0  0    54 18 20   23 50 27    12   -32   54  5 47   54 30 55
     30  0  0    54 11 32   23 50 30    11   -32   53 58 57   54 24  8
     31  0  0    54  4 19   23 50 33    11   -32   53 51 42   54 16 58
     32  0  0    53 56 42   23 50 35    10   -32   53 44  3   54  9 22
     33  0  0    53 48 40   23 50 37    10   -32   53 35 60   54  1 22
     34  0  0    53 40 14   23 50 40     9   -31   53 27 31   53 52 58
     35  0  0    53 31 22   23 50 42     8   -31   53 18 37   53 44  8
     36  0  0    53 22  5   23 50 44     8   -31   53  9 17   53 34 53
     37  0  0    53 12 22   23 50 46     7   -31   52 59 32   53 25 12
     38  0  0    53  2 13   23 50 47     7   -30   52 49 21   53 15  6
     39  0  0    52 51 39   23 50 49     6   -30   52 38 45   53  4 34
     40  0  0    52 40 38   23 50 50     5   -30   52 27 41   52 53 36
     41  0  0    52 29 11   23 50 52     5   -30   52 16 12   52 42 11
     42  0  0    52 17 17   23 50 53     4   -29   52  4 15   52 30 20
   ........................... shortened .............................

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory                Private :
Petrin 205                          Werichova 950
118 46  Praha 1                     152 00  Praha 5 - Barrandov     |_|_|
Czech Republic                      Czech Republic                  /   \
Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz                                |-O-O-|
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