Update for (147) Protogeneia - July 28/29, 2003

Update computed by Jan Manek; issued 24 Jul 2003 00:04 +0200 (CEST)

Jan Manek's update

                    IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
            (147) Protogeneia / TYC 5794-00324-1 on July 28/29, 2003
       visible from S Russia, SE Ukraine, SE Romania, NW Bulgaria, S Serbia,
           N Albania, S Italy, S Sardegna, coastal Algeria and N Morocco

Summary

In the night of July 28/29, 2003 a faint 11.2 mag star TYC 5794-00324-1 will be occulted by a 137 km asteroid (147) Protogeneia. This update is based on USNO/Flagstaff and TMO astrometry for the asteroid and UCAC2-beta star position.

The updated path shows ~1.5 path width north shift with time ~0.1 minutes later compared to Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction.

Updated path runs due to north shift over S Russia in twilight ~0:29 UT, SE Ukraine ~0:29.6 UT, S Moldavia ~0:30.3 UT, SE Romania ~0:30.5 UT with Bucharest in path, NW Bulgaria ~0:30.8 UT with Sofia on south limit, S Serbia ~0:31.1 UT, N Albania ~0:31.2 UT, S Italy ~0:31.8 UT with Naples in path, S Sardinia ~0:32.7 UT, coastal Algeria around 0:33.5 UT and N Morocco ~0:34.8 UT. Please check the path chart for details.

Clear sky and good luck !!!

The event at one glimpse: * date and approx. UT time of event: July 29, 2003 @ 00:32 UT * magnitude of target star: 11.2 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.7 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 12.5 * path description: given above * Goffin's original chart reference: A03_0714 The occultation path: * approximate ground width [km]: 200 * uncertainty [path widths]: 0.6 * uncertainty in time [s]: 7 * map: below * remarks: Path uncertainties are given according to nominal star position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy. Data for the target star: * name: TYC 5794-00324-1 * constellation: Capricornus * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 21h 33m 41.3086s; -11o 41' 42.104" * position source: recent UCAC2 beta * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.03" (0.02", 0.02") * V mag [mag]: 11.21 * B-V [mag]: +1.02 * remarks: Target star is in north-east Capricornus, about 6.1 degrees south of 2.9 mag star beta Aquarii = SAO 145457 or ~5.5 degrees NW of 2.9 mag star delta Capricorni = SAO 164644. It's rather far from bright stars. Only 2.2' west of target is slightly brighter 10.3 mag star PPM 239007. !!! IMPORTANT !!! Purple stars in identification chart are so called 'non-star' objects in GSC; in dense fields the 'non-stars' are often real stars or blends of close pairs. Be careful about this. Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE8): * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross * field is 3.5x3.5 degrees * limiting magnitude is 13.0 * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers * remarks: Second chart shows 30' blowup to show correctly the star in field.

Data for the minor planet: * general information: number, name: (147) Protogeneia approx. diameter [km]: 137 * orbital information orbit source: calculation Manek source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen) number of used observations: 91 USNO, 27 TMO number of rejected observations: 21 USNO time covered by the observations: 1998 07 28 - 2003 06 30 rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.07", 0.06" estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.05", 0.05" remarks: Data for the event: * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 00:34.6 UT * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 12.7 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 4.254 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.7 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 12.5 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 26.38 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 159, 0% * remarks: Elements for WinOccult: ============ cut here =========================================== 2003 Jul 29 147 Protogeneia 0h 34.6m UT 94-00324-1 11.2 21 33 41.309-11 41 42.10TYC 5794-00324-1 12.7 137 12.5 2.067 -1.728 -7.23 8.499 -11.692 -187.04 18.89 0.5775 -.20113 .70738 -5.96175 -1.69842 -0.00144 -0.00075 2000 320.5140502003 720.00000108.151480248.7557421.934182 0.034205783.136451303.029166558.275 0.15 RATE 1.7743780 .0000000 .0000000 .0000000 .00000000 .00000000 .00000000 ============ cut here =========================================== Calculator(s): Jan Manek

Updated path location for (147) Protogeneia on July 28/29, 2002

Updated path location for (147) Protogeneia on July 28/29, 2002

Path coordinates: Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude ...................................... shortened ............................................. o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " 48 0 0 52 35 37 0 28 51 18 219 -5 53 39 55 51 32 48 55 9 58 50 9 32 47 0 0 52 14 49 0 28 55 19 219 -6 53 19 7 51 11 59 54 49 11 49 48 43 46 0 0 51 53 51 0 28 58 19 218 -6 52 58 9 50 51 1 54 28 13 49 27 45 45 0 0 51 32 43 0 29 1 20 217 -7 52 37 1 50 29 54 54 7 5 49 6 38 44 0 0 51 11 27 0 29 5 21 216 -8 52 15 44 50 8 39 53 45 46 48 45 24 43 0 0 50 50 2 0 29 9 21 215 -8 51 54 18 49 47 15 53 24 18 48 24 2 42 0 0 50 28 29 0 29 13 22 214 -9 51 32 43 49 25 44 53 2 41 48 2 32 41 0 0 50 6 49 0 29 17 23 213 -10 51 11 1 49 4 5 52 40 56 47 40 56 40 0 0 49 45 1 0 29 21 23 212 -10 50 49 11 48 42 20 52 19 2 47 19 14 39 0 0 49 23 8 0 29 26 24 211 -11 50 27 15 48 20 29 51 57 2 46 57 27 38 0 0 49 1 9 0 29 30 25 211 -12 50 5 12 47 58 33 51 34 55 46 35 35 37 0 0 48 39 4 0 29 35 25 210 -13 49 43 4 47 36 32 51 12 41 46 13 38 36 0 0 48 16 55 0 29 40 26 209 -13 49 20 51 47 14 27 50 50 22 45 51 37 35 0 0 47 54 42 0 29 45 26 208 -14 48 58 34 46 52 18 50 27 59 45 29 33 34 0 0 47 32 26 0 29 50 27 207 -15 48 36 13 46 30 6 50 5 31 45 7 27 33 0 0 47 10 6 0 29 55 28 206 -15 48 13 48 46 7 51 49 42 59 44 45 18 32 0 0 46 47 45 0 30 0 28 205 -16 47 51 22 45 45 35 49 20 25 44 23 8 31 0 0 46 25 22 0 30 6 29 204 -17 47 28 53 45 23 17 48 57 48 44 0 57 30 0 0 46 2 58 0 30 12 30 203 -18 47 6 23 45 0 59 48 35 9 43 38 46 29 0 0 45 40 34 0 30 17 30 202 -18 46 43 53 44 38 40 48 12 29 43 16 35 28 0 0 45 18 10 0 30 23 31 201 -19 46 21 22 44 16 22 47 49 49 42 54 24 27 0 0 44 55 47 0 30 29 31 200 -20 45 58 53 43 54 6 47 27 10 42 32 16 26 0 0 44 33 26 0 30 36 32 199 -20 45 36 24 43 31 51 47 4 31 42 10 9 25 0 0 44 11 7 0 30 42 33 198 -21 45 13 58 43 9 39 46 41 54 41 48 6 24 0 0 43 48 50 0 30 48 33 197 -22 44 51 34 42 47 29 46 19 19 41 26 5 23 0 0 43 26 37 0 30 55 34 196 -22 44 29 13 42 25 24 45 56 47 41 4 8 22 0 0 43 4 28 0 31 2 34 195 -23 44 6 57 42 3 22 45 34 19 40 42 16 21 0 0 42 42 24 0 31 8 35 194 -24 43 44 45 41 41 26 45 11 55 40 20 29 20 0 0 42 20 26 0 31 15 35 193 -24 43 22 37 41 19 34 44 49 35 39 58 48 19 0 0 41 58 33 0 31 22 36 192 -25 43 0 36 40 57 49 44 27 22 39 37 13 18 0 0 41 36 46 0 31 29 36 191 -26 42 38 41 40 36 11 44 5 14 39 15 45 17 0 0 41 15 7 0 31 37 37 189 -26 42 16 53 40 14 40 43 43 14 38 54 24 16 0 0 40 53 35 0 31 44 37 188 -27 41 55 13 39 53 17 43 21 20 38 33 11 15 0 0 40 32 12 0 31 51 38 187 -27 41 33 41 39 32 2 42 59 35 38 12 6 14 0 0 40 10 58 0 31 59 38 186 -28 41 12 18 39 10 56 42 37 59 37 51 11 13 0 0 39 49 53 0 32 7 38 185 -29 40 51 4 38 49 59 42 16 31 37 30 25 12 0 0 39 28 58 0 32 14 39 184 -29 40 30 0 38 29 13 41 55 14 37 9 50 11 0 0 39 8 14 0 32 22 39 182 -30 40 9 6 38 8 37 41 34 7 36 49 25 10 0 0 38 47 40 0 32 30 40 181 -30 39 48 24 37 48 12 41 13 11 36 29 11 9 0 0 38 27 19 0 32 38 40 180 -31 39 27 53 37 27 59 40 52 27 36 9 9 8 0 0 38 7 9 0 32 46 40 179 -32 39 7 34 37 7 59 40 31 54 35 49 19 7 0 0 37 47 13 0 32 54 41 177 -32 38 47 28 36 48 11 40 11 35 35 29 42 6 0 0 37 27 29 0 33 2 41 176 -33 38 27 36 36 28 36 39 51 28 35 10 18 5 0 0 37 7 59 0 33 10 41 175 -33 38 7 56 36 9 14 39 31 36 34 51 8 4 0 0 36 48 43 0 33 19 41 174 -34 37 48 31 35 50 7 39 11 57 34 32 11 3 0 0 36 29 42 0 33 27 42 172 -34 37 29 21 35 31 14 38 52 34 34 13 30 2 0 0 36 10 56 0 33 35 42 171 -34 37 10 26 35 12 37 38 33 25 33 55 3 1 0 0 35 52 26 0 33 44 42 170 -35 36 51 47 34 54 15 38 14 33 33 36 52 0 0 0 35 34 11 0 33 52 42 168 -35 36 33 23 34 36 9 37 55 56 33 18 56 - 1 0 0 35 16 13 0 34 1 42 167 -36 36 15 16 34 18 19 37 37 36 33 1 17 - 2 0 0 34 58 31 0 34 9 42 166 -36 35 57 26 34 0 46 37 19 33 32 43 54 - 3 0 0 34 41 7 0 34 18 42 164 -36 35 39 53 33 43 30 37 1 48 32 26 49 - 4 0 0 34 24 1 0 34 26 43 163 -37 35 22 38 33 26 31 36 44 20 32 10 0 - 5 0 0 34 7 12 0 34 35 43 162 -37 35 5 41 33 9 51 36 27 11 31 53 30 - 6 0 0 33 50 42 0 34 44 43 160 -37 34 49 3 32 53 29 36 10 21 31 37 18 - 7 0 0 33 34 31 0 34 52 43 159 -38 34 32 44 32 37 25 35 53 49 31 21 24 - 8 0 0 33 18 39 0 35 1 42 158 -38 34 16 43 32 21 40 35 37 37 31 5 49 - 9 0 0 33 3 6 0 35 9 42 157 -38 34 1 3 32 6 15 35 21 45 30 50 33 - 10 0 0 32 47 53 0 35 18 42 155 -38 33 45 42 31 51 9 35 6 13 30 35 37 - 11 0 0 32 33 0 0 35 26 42 154 -39 33 30 42 31 36 24 34 51 1 30 21 0 - 12 0 0 32 18 28 0 35 35 42 153 -39 33 16 2 31 21 58 34 36 11 30 6 44 - 13 0 0 32 4 16 0 35 43 42 151 -39 33 1 43 31 7 54 34 21 41 29 52 48 - 14 0 0 31 50 26 0 35 52 42 150 -39 32 47 45 30 54 10 34 7 33 29 39 12 - 15 0 0 31 36 57 0 36 0 41 149 -39 32 34 9 30 40 47 33 53 47 29 25 58 - 16 0 0 31 23 49 0 36 9 41 148 -39 32 20 55 30 27 46 33 40 23 29 13 5 - 17 0 0 31 11 3 0 36 17 41 147 -39 32 8 2 30 15 6 33 27 21 29 0 33 - 18 0 0 30 58 39 0 36 26 41 145 -39 31 55 32 30 2 48 33 14 41 28 48 23 - 19 0 0 30 46 38 0 36 34 40 144 -39 31 43 25 29 50 53 33 2 25 28 36 35 ...................................... shortened ............................................. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan Manek Stefanik Observatory Private : Petrin 205 Werichova 950 118 46 Praha 1 152 00 Praha 5 - Barrandov |_|_| Czech Republic Czech Republic / \ Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz |-O-O-| --------------------------------------------------------------------U---U---

Be sure to use the RELOAD button of your browser,
so you will surely use the latest version of predictions page!