Update for (357) Ninina - September 10/11, 2003

Jan Manek's update

                 IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
          (357) Ninina / HIP 29752 = SAO 95460 on September 10/11, 2003
           visible from N France, S Germany, very S Czechia, N Austria,
                             Slovakia and N Hungary

Summary 

In the night of September 10/11, 2003 a bright 6.8 mag star HIP 29752 = SAO 95460 will be occulted by a 110 km asteroid (357) Ninina. This update is based on USNO/Flagstaff, TMO and Ondrejov astrometry for the asteroid and Hipparcos star position.

The updated path shows ~9 path width north shift with no time correction compared to Edwin Goffin's nominal prediction.

Updated path runs due to north shift over N France around 3:45.0 UT with Brest, Orleans, Paris and Strasbourg in path, S Germany around 3:45.3 UT with Munich in path, very S Czechia ~3:45.5 UT, N Austria ~3:45.6 UT with Vienna in path, Slovakia around 3:45.7 UT with Bratislava in path and N Hungary ~3:45.8 UT with Budapest just south of south limit. Please check the path chart for details.

This update path is ~0.5 path width north and occultation time is ~5 seconds earlier compared to Preston's update; the same star position was used by both so only orbital solution differences make this shift. Usage of only Hipparcos star data without acceleration terms puts the path ~0.3 path width south of my update with some time difference. I have used also very recent Ondrejov astrometry from September 5 and 6, which wasn't available at time of Preston's update. Clear sky and good luck !!!

The event at one glimpse:
 * date and approx. UT time of event: September 11, 2003 @ 3:45 UT (Europe)
 * magnitude of target star: 6.8
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 7.7
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.6
 * path description: given above
 * Goffin's original chart reference: A03_0943

The occultation path:
 * approximate ground width [km]: 135
 * uncertainty [path widths]: 0.75
 * uncertainty in time [s]: 5
 * map: below
 * remarks: Path uncertainties are given according to nominal star
    position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy.

Data for the target star:
 * name: HIP 29752 = SAO 95460 = PPM 122190 = GSC 0735-01637
 * constellation: Orion
 * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 06h 15m 56.4844s; +10o 16' 54.073"
 * position source: Hipparcos+Tycho2
 * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.03" (0.02", 0.02")
 * V mag [mag]: 6.83
 * B-V [mag]: +1.25
 * remarks:
    Target star is in east Orion, about 5.9 degrees northeast of 0.6 mag star alpha Orionis = SAO 113271.
    Combination of Hipparcos position and parallax with Tycho2 proper motion was used.
    Hipparcos gives acceleration terms, which I'm not sure how safe is to use now, almost 15 years after the observations.
    !!! IMPORTANT !!!
    Purple stars in identification chart are so called 'non-star' objects in GSC; in dense fields
    the 'non-stars' are often real stars or blends of close pairs. Be careful about this.

Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE8):
 * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross
 * field is 3.0x3.0 degrees
 * limiting magnitude is 12.5
 * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers
 * remarks: Wide field chart is 20 degrees, while detailed chart shows 30' blowup to show correctly the star in field.












Data for the minor planet:
 * general information:
     number, name: (357) Ninina
     approx. diameter [km]: 110
 * orbital information
     orbit source: calculation Manek
     source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen), Ondrejov (Kusnirak, Manek)
     number of used observations: 103 USNO, 20 TMO, 4 Ondrejov
     number of rejected observations: 15 USNO
     time covered by the observations: 1998 11 17 - 2003 09 06
     rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.09", 0.09"
     estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.03", 0.03"
     remarks:

Data for the event:
 * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 3:47.6 UT
 * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 14.5
 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 2.840
 * magnitude drop [mag]: 7.7
 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.6
 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 38.49
 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 99, 100%
 * remarks:

Elements for WinOccult:
============ cut here ===========================================
 2003 Sep 11
  357  Ninina
 3h 47.6m UT
   6.8    6 15 56.484 10 16 54.07HIP 29752_             8.1
14.5    110    4.6   3.097     2.575     -6.10
   47.334  10.284   122.33    4.74
  3.7926   .09049   .55930 13.38448 -2.14651 -0.00547 -0.00020
2000    41.97502592003 9 8.00000246.949448138.19457115.100263 0.073541693.149594042.917967578.725   0.15
RATE 1.7632838 .0000000 .0000000 .0000000 .00000000 .00000000 .00000000
============ cut here ===========================================

Calculator(s): Jan Manek








Path coordinates:
                  Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    ...................................... shortened .............................................
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
   - 13  0  0    47 51 57    3 44 31    27   105   -25   47 15 46   48 28 25   46 21 14   49 24 21
   - 12  0  0    47 55 44    3 44 32    27   106   -24   47 19 34   48 32 10   46 25  4   49 28  5
   - 11  0  0    47 59 19    3 44 34    28   107   -24   47 23  9   48 35 44   46 28 41   49 31 37
   - 10  0  0    48  2 41    3 44 36    29   108   -23   47 26 32   48 39  5   46 32  5   49 34 56
   -  9  0  0    48  5 51    3 44 38    29   108   -23   47 29 44   48 42 14   46 35 18   49 38  4
   -  8  0  0    48  8 49    3 44 40    30   109   -22   47 32 42   48 45 11   46 38 18   49 41  0
   -  7  0  0    48 11 35    3 44 42    31   110   -22   47 35 29   48 47 56   46 41  6   49 43 44
   -  6  0  0    48 14  8    3 44 44    31   111   -21   47 38  4   48 50 29   46 43 41   49 46 15
   -  5  0  0    48 16 30    3 44 46    32   112   -20   47 40 26   48 52 50   46 46  5   49 48 35
   -  4  0  0    48 18 39    3 44 48    32   113   -20   47 42 36   48 54 58   46 48 16   49 50 42
   -  3  0  0    48 20 36    3 44 50    33   114   -19   47 44 33   48 56 55   46 50 14   49 52 38
   -  2  0  0    48 22 21    3 44 52    34   115   -19   47 46 19   48 58 39   46 52  0   49 54 21
   -  1  0  0    48 23 54    3 44 54    34   116   -18   47 47 52   49  0 11   46 53 34   49 55 52
      0  0  0    48 25 14    3 44 56    35   117   -17   47 49 12   49  1 31   46 54 55   49 57 12
      1  0  0    48 26 22    3 44 58    35   118   -17   47 50 21   49  2 39   46 56  4   49 58 19
      2  0  0    48 27 18    3 45  0    36   119   -16   47 51 17   49  3 34   46 57  1   49 59 14
      3  0  0    48 28  1    3 45  3    37   120   -16   47 52  1   49  4 17   46 57 45   49 59 56
      4  0  0    48 28 33    3 45  5    37   121   -15   47 52 32   49  4 48   46 58 17   50  0 27
      5  0  0    48 28 52    3 45  7    38   122   -14   47 52 51   49  5  7   46 58 36   50  0 46
      6  0  0    48 28 58    3 45 10    38   123   -14   47 52 58   49  5 14   46 58 43   50  0 52
      7  0  0    48 28 53    3 45 12    39   124   -13   47 52 53   49  5  8   46 58 38   50  0 47
      8  0  0    48 28 35    3 45 14    39   125   -13   47 52 35   49  4 51   46 58 20   50  0 29
      9  0  0    48 28  5    3 45 17    40   126   -12   47 52  4   49  4 20   46 57 49   49 59 59
     10  0  0    48 27 22    3 45 19    40   127   -11   47 51 22   49  3 38   46 57  7   49 59 17
     11  0  0    48 26 27    3 45 22    41   128   -11   47 50 27   49  2 44   46 56 11   49 58 23
     12  0  0    48 25 20    3 45 24    42   129   -10   47 49 19   49  1 37   46 55  4   49 57 16
     13  0  0    48 24  1    3 45 27    42   131    -9   47 48  0   49  0 18   46 53 43   49 55 58
     14  0  0    48 22 29    3 45 29    43   132    -9   47 46 28   48 58 46   46 52 11   49 54 27
     15  0  0    48 20 45    3 45 32    43   133    -8   47 44 43   48 57  3   46 50 26   49 52 44
     16  0  0    48 18 49    3 45 34    44   134    -8   47 42 46   48 55  7   46 48 28   49 50 49
     17  0  0    48 16 40    3 45 37    44   135    -7   47 40 37   48 52 59   46 46 18   49 48 42
     18  0  0    48 14 19    3 45 40    45   136    -6   47 38 16   48 50 39   46 43 56   49 46 23
     19  0  0    48 11 46    3 45 42    45   138    -6   47 35 42   48 48  6   46 41 21   49 43 51
     20  0  0    48  9  1    3 45 45    46   139    -5   47 32 56   48 45 22   46 38 33   49 41  8
     21  0  0    48  6  3    3 45 48    46   140    -4   47 29 57   48 42 24   46 35 34   49 38 12
     22  0  0    48  2 53    3 45 51    47   141    -4   47 26 46   48 39 15   46 32 21   49 35  4
     23  0  0    47 59 30    3 45 53    47   143    -3   47 23 23   48 35 54   46 28 57   49 31 44
     24  0  0    47 55 56    3 45 56    47   144    -2   47 19 47   48 32 20   46 25 20   49 28 12
     25  0  0    47 52  9    3 45 59    48   145    -2   47 15 59   48 28 34   46 21 30   49 24 27
     26  0  0    47 48  9    3 46  2    48   147    -1   47 11 59   48 24 36   46 17 28   49 20 31
     27  0  0    47 43 58    3 46  5    49   148     0   47  7 46   48 20 25   46 13 14   49 16 22
     28  0  0    47 39 34    3 46  8    49   149     0   47  3 21   48 16  3   46  8 48   49 12  1
     ...................................... shortened .............................................

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Manek
Stefanik Observatory                Private :
Petrin 205                          Werichova 950
118 46  Praha 1                     152 00  Praha 5 - Barrandov     |_|_|
Czech Republic                      Czech Republic                  /   \
Internet : jan.manek@worldonline.cz                                |-O-O-|
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