Update for (925) Alphonsina - November 21/22, 2003

Update computed by Jan Manek; issued 18 Nov 2003 22:26 +0100 (CET)

Jan Manek's update

                  IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for
         (925) Alphonsina / GSC 3360-01079 on November 21/22, 2003
      visible from S Russia, S Ukraine, Moldavia, N Romania, Hungary,
                S Austria, Switzerland and middle France


Summary

In the night of November 21/22, 2003 a faint 11.6 mag star GSC 3360-01079 will be occulted by a 57 km asteroid (925) Alphonsina. This update is based on USNO/Flagstaff, TMO and Ondrejov astrometry for the asteroid and UCAC2 star position.

The updated path shows ~3.5 path width south shift with small timeshift compared to Eric Frappa's prediction.

Updated path runs due to south shift over S Russia around 0:52 UT, S Ukraine ~0:53.5 UT with Odessa on south limit, Moldavia ~0:54.3 UT, N Romania ~0:54.9 UT, Hungary ~0:55.6 UT with Budapest in path, S Austria ~0:56.5 UT, Switzerland ~0:57.2 UT with Bern on north limit and finally middle France around 0:58.0 UT with Limoges in path. Please check the path chart for details.

On December 22/23, 2003 will be excellent occultation of 6.2 mag star HIP 23799 running over areas with a lot of observers. This November occultation is a good chance to test if Alphonsina follows our predictions and to find possible corrections. There is one more 'test' occultation on November 29, 2003 but not as favorable as this one.

Here is current station list for observers and European cities.

Clear sky and good luck !!!

The event at one glimpse: * date and approx. UT time of event: November 22, 2003 @ 00:57 UT (Europe) * magnitude of target star: 11.6 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.2 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 6.3 * path description: given above * Goffin's original chart reference: A03_XXXX The occultation path: * approximate ground width [km]: 60 * uncertainty [path widths]: 1.2 * uncertainty in time [s]: 8 * map: below * remarks: Path uncertainties are given according to nominal star position errors and expected asteroid positional accuracy. Data for the target star: * name: GSC 3360-01079 * constellation: Auriga * J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 05h 45m 04.4129s; +45o 55' 41.429" * position source: UCAC2 * estimated accuracy ["]: 0.03" (0.02", 0.02") * V mag [mag]: 11.6 * B-V [mag]: +0.?? * remarks: Target star is in north Auriga, about 2.7 degrees NW of 1.9 mag star beta Aurigae = SAO 40750. !!! IMPORTANT !!! Purple stars in identification chart are so called 'non-star' objects in GSC; in dense fields the 'non-stars' are often real stars or blends of close pairs. Be careful about this. Close finding chart (prepared in GUIDE8): * occulted star is in center - labeled with cross * field is 3.0x3.0 degrees * limiting magnitude is 12.5 * labeled stars have indicated SAO numbers * remarks: Second chart shows 30' blowup to show correctly the star in field.

Data for the minor planet: * general information: number, name: (925) Alphonsina approx. diameter [km]: 57 * orbital information orbit source: calculation Manek source of used astrometry: USNO/Flagstaff (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen), Ondrejov (Kusnirak, Sarounova, Manek) number of used observations: 95 USNO, 18 TMO, 12 Ondrejov number of rejected observations: 22 USNO time covered by the observations: 1998 08 02 - 2003 11 08 rms residuals ["] (RA,DE): 0.06", 0.06" estimated positional accuracy at epoch of event ["]: 0.05", 0.05" remarks: Data for the event: * UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 00:56.7 UT * approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 12.4 * geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 5.074 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.2 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 6.3 * apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 26.38 * angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 121, 6% * remarks: Elements for WinOccult: ============ cut here =========================================== 2003 Nov 22 925 Alphonsina 0h 56.7m UT 11.6 5 45 4.413 45 55 41.43GSC 3360-01079 11.6 12.4 57 6.3 1.733 -2.469 -2.63 11.483 45.929 162.31 -20.00 0.9449 -.00142 .01502 -5.07405 -0.51566 -0.00271 -0.00206 2000 299.58513020031117.00000202.449720299.80220221.073102 0.080631242.699911002.482213838.335 0.15 RATE 2.2216710 .0000000 .0000000 .0000000 .00000000 .00000000 .00000000 ============ cut here =========================================== Calculator(s): Jan Manek

Updated path location for (925) Alphonsina on November 21/22, 2003

Updated path location for (925) Alphonsina on November 21/22, 2003

Path coordinates: Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 ...................................... shortened ............................................. o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 60 0 0 40 17 49 0 50 6 56 296 -23 40 34 57 40 0 40 41 16 6 39 19 32 59 0 0 40 39 55 0 50 14 57 295 -24 40 56 58 40 22 51 41 37 54 39 41 56 58 0 0 41 1 18 0 50 22 57 294 -25 41 18 16 40 44 20 41 59 0 40 3 36 57 0 0 41 22 0 0 50 31 58 294 -25 41 38 53 41 5 7 42 19 25 40 24 35 56 0 0 41 42 0 0 50 39 59 293 -26 41 58 49 41 25 12 42 39 9 40 44 52 55 0 0 42 1 21 0 50 48 60 292 -27 42 18 5 41 44 37 42 58 14 41 4 28 54 0 0 42 20 2 0 50 56 60 292 -28 42 36 41 42 3 22 43 16 39 41 23 25 53 0 0 42 38 3 0 51 4 61 291 -28 42 54 38 42 21 28 43 34 25 41 41 41 52 0 0 42 55 26 0 51 13 62 290 -29 43 11 56 42 38 56 43 51 34 41 59 19 51 0 0 43 12 11 0 51 21 63 289 -30 43 28 37 42 55 45 44 8 5 42 16 18 50 0 0 43 28 18 0 51 29 63 289 -31 43 44 41 43 11 56 44 23 58 42 32 39 49 0 0 43 43 49 0 51 38 64 288 -31 44 0 7 43 27 31 44 39 16 42 48 23 48 0 0 43 58 43 0 51 46 65 287 -32 44 14 58 43 42 29 44 53 57 43 3 30 47 0 0 44 13 2 0 51 54 66 287 -33 44 29 13 43 56 51 45 8 3 43 18 1 46 0 0 44 26 45 0 52 2 66 286 -33 44 42 52 44 10 37 45 21 35 43 31 56 45 0 0 44 39 53 0 52 10 67 285 -34 44 55 57 44 23 49 45 34 31 43 45 15 44 0 0 44 52 27 0 52 19 68 284 -35 45 8 28 44 36 26 45 46 54 43 58 0 43 0 0 45 4 27 0 52 27 69 284 -35 45 20 24 44 48 29 45 58 43 44 10 10 42 0 0 45 15 53 0 52 35 69 283 -36 45 31 48 44 59 58 46 9 59 44 21 47 41 0 0 45 26 46 0 52 43 70 282 -37 45 42 38 45 10 54 46 20 43 44 32 49 40 0 0 45 37 6 0 52 51 71 281 -37 45 52 55 45 21 17 46 30 54 44 43 19 39 0 0 45 46 54 0 52 59 71 281 -38 46 2 41 45 31 7 46 40 33 44 53 15 38 0 0 45 56 10 0 53 7 72 280 -38 46 11 54 45 40 25 46 49 41 45 2 39 37 0 0 46 4 54 0 53 16 73 279 -39 46 20 36 45 49 12 46 58 17 45 11 31 36 0 0 46 13 6 0 53 24 73 278 -40 46 28 46 45 57 26 47 6 22 45 19 51 35 0 0 46 20 48 0 53 32 74 277 -40 46 36 25 46 5 10 47 13 57 45 27 39 34 0 0 46 27 58 0 53 40 75 277 -41 46 43 34 46 12 22 47 21 1 45 34 56 33 0 0 46 34 38 0 53 48 75 276 -42 46 50 12 46 19 4 47 27 35 45 41 42 32 0 0 46 40 48 0 53 56 76 275 -42 46 56 20 46 25 15 47 33 39 45 47 57 31 0 0 46 46 27 0 54 4 77 274 -43 47 1 58 46 30 56 47 39 13 45 53 42 30 0 0 46 51 37 0 54 12 77 273 -43 47 7 6 46 36 7 47 44 18 45 58 56 29 0 0 46 56 16 0 54 20 78 272 -44 47 11 45 46 40 48 47 48 53 46 3 40 28 0 0 47 0 27 0 54 28 79 271 -45 47 15 54 46 44 59 47 53 0 46 7 54 27 0 0 47 4 7 0 54 36 79 270 -45 47 19 34 46 48 41 47 56 37 46 11 38 26 0 0 47 7 19 0 54 44 80 269 -46 47 22 44 46 51 53 47 59 46 46 14 52 25 0 0 47 10 1 0 54 52 80 268 -46 47 25 26 46 54 36 48 2 25 46 17 37 24 0 0 47 12 14 0 55 0 81 267 -47 47 27 38 46 56 50 48 4 37 46 19 52 23 0 0 47 13 58 0 55 8 82 266 -48 47 29 22 46 58 35 48 6 19 46 21 38 22 0 0 47 15 14 0 55 16 82 264 -48 47 30 37 46 59 50 48 7 33 46 22 54 21 0 0 47 16 0 0 55 24 83 263 -49 47 31 23 47 0 37 48 8 19 46 23 41 20 0 0 47 16 17 0 55 32 83 261 -49 47 31 41 47 0 54 48 8 36 46 23 59 19 0 0 47 16 6 0 55 40 84 260 -50 47 31 29 47 0 43 48 8 25 46 23 48 18 0 0 47 15 26 0 55 48 84 257 -50 47 30 49 47 0 3 48 7 45 46 23 7 17 0 0 47 14 17 0 55 56 85 255 -51 47 29 40 46 58 53 48 6 37 46 21 57 16 0 0 47 12 39 0 56 5 85 251 -52 47 28 3 46 57 15 48 5 1 46 20 17 15 0 0 47 10 32 0 56 13 86 247 -52 47 25 57 46 55 7 48 2 56 46 18 9 14 0 0 47 7 56 0 56 21 86 239 -53 47 23 21 46 52 31 48 0 22 46 15 30 13 0 0 47 4 51 0 56 29 86 226 -53 47 20 17 46 49 25 47 57 20 46 12 22 12 0 0 47 1 17 0 56 37 86 198 -54 47 16 44 46 45 50 47 53 49 46 8 45 11 0 0 46 57 13 0 56 45 86 156 -54 47 12 41 46 41 45 47 49 49 46 4 38 10 0 0 46 52 40 0 56 53 86 125 -55 47 8 9 46 37 11 47 45 20 46 0 0 9 0 0 46 47 37 0 57 2 86 111 -55 47 3 8 46 32 7 47 40 22 45 54 53 8 0 0 46 42 5 0 57 10 86 102 -56 46 57 37 46 26 32 47 34 54 45 49 15 7 0 0 46 36 2 0 57 18 85 97 -57 46 51 36 46 20 28 47 28 57 45 43 7 6 0 0 46 29 29 0 57 26 85 94 -57 46 45 5 46 13 54 47 22 30 45 36 29 5 0 0 46 22 26 0 57 35 84 91 -58 46 38 3 46 6 49 47 15 33 45 29 19 4 0 0 46 14 52 0 57 43 84 89 -58 46 30 31 45 59 13 47 8 6 45 21 38 3 0 0 46 6 47 0 57 51 83 87 -59 46 22 28 45 51 6 47 0 8 45 13 26 2 0 0 45 58 11 0 58 0 83 85 -59 46 13 55 45 42 27 46 51 40 45 4 42 1 0 0 45 49 3 0 58 8 82 84 -60 46 4 49 45 33 17 46 42 40 44 55 26 0 0 0 45 39 23 0 58 17 82 83 -60 45 55 12 45 23 35 46 33 9 44 45 38 - 1 0 0 45 29 12 0 58 25 81 81 -61 45 45 3 45 13 20 46 23 6 44 35 18 - 2 0 0 45 18 27 0 58 34 80 80 -61 45 34 21 45 2 33 46 12 32 44 24 24 - 3 0 0 45 7 10 0 58 42 80 79 -62 45 23 7 44 51 13 46 1 24 44 12 57 - 4 0 0 44 55 20 0 58 51 79 78 -62 45 11 20 44 39 20 45 49 44 44 0 56 - 5 0 0 44 42 56 0 59 0 78 77 -63 44 58 59 44 26 52 45 37 31 43 48 21 - 6 0 0 44 29 57 0 59 8 78 76 -63 44 46 4 44 13 51 45 24 44 43 35 12 - 7 0 0 44 16 24 0 59 17 77 75 -64 44 32 34 44 0 15 45 11 23 43 21 27 - 8 0 0 44 2 17 0 59 26 76 75 -64 44 18 30 43 46 3 44 57 27 43 7 7 - 9 0 0 43 47 33 0 59 35 75 74 -65 44 3 51 43 31 16 44 42 56 42 52 11 - 10 0 0 43 32 14 0 59 44 75 73 -65 43 48 35 43 15 53 44 27 50 42 36 39 - 11 0 0 43 16 19 0 59 52 74 72 -66 43 32 44 42 59 54 44 12 8 42 20 30 - 12 0 0 42 59 46 1 0 1 73 71 -66 43 16 15 42 43 17 43 55 49 42 3 44 - 13 0 0 42 42 36 1 0 10 72 70 -67 42 59 9 42 26 3 43 38 53 41 46 19 ...................................... shortened ............................................. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan Manek Stefanik Observatory Private : Petrin 205 Werichova 950 118 46 Praha 1 152 00 Praha 5 - Barrandov |_|_| Czech Republic Czech Republic / \ Internet : jan.manek AT worldonline.cz |-O-O-| --------------------------------------------------------------------U---U---

Be sure to use the RELOAD button of your browser,
so you will surely use the latest version of predictions page!